RCPs气候情景下三江平原典型流域耕地动态模拟  

Simulation of Cultivated Land under RCPs Scenarios in Typical Basin of Sanjiang Plain

作　　者：周浩[1] 雷国平[1] 杨雪昕 王婷婷[1] ZHOU Hao LEI Guoping YANG Xuexin WANG Tingting(Land Management Institute, Northeastern University, Shenyang 110169, China)

机构地区：[1]东北大学土地管理研究所,沈阳110169

出　　处：《农业机械学报》2017年第10期121-133,共13页Transactions of the Chinese Society for Agricultural Machinery

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目(41671520)

摘　　要：选取三江平原典型流域挠力河流域为研究区,以1990、2002和2014年3期Landsat影像、DEM数据和社会经济统计资料等多源数据为基本信息源,结合3S技术,运用FLUS模型定量模拟代表性浓度路径情景系列(RCPs)下耕地动态变化特征。结果表明:24 a间挠力河流域的旱地面积变化幅度较小,水田面积持续增加,1990—2002年水田扩张剧烈,2002—2014年扩张速度趋于缓和;3个时点的旱地均沿东北-西南轴方向进行分布,主轴沿顺时针缓慢旋转,空间变化稳定,分布范围逐渐减小。水田沿东北-西南走向分布,1990—2002年其主轴逆时针旋转,后顺时针旋转至45.31°,整体分布较为离散,极化特征不明显;通过对比不同空间分辨率及时间尺度下模拟精度,确定最优模拟空间分辨率为200 m,最优模拟时间点为2038年;MESSAGE气候模式下,未来挠力河流域的旱地面积先减少后增加,水田继续维持扩张态势,2029年后面积将以2%速度逐年下降,其分布将更加聚集,主轴沿顺时针旋转,重心逐渐向东北方向进行偏移;AIM气候模式下,气候波动对水田的影响程度大于旱地,旱地面积持续缓慢增加,水田面积在波动中下降,空间分布的极化特征突出。Since the mid-20th century, the climatic tendency of warming and drying had been shown distinctly in the mid-latitude zone of the North Hemisphere. It was of a series of impacts on the water resources system, especially in the semi-arid regions. In 1990s, the agricultural structure of Naoli River Basin, which was located in the hinterland of Sanjiang Plain, had been greatly adjusted with large amount of dry land changed into paddy field with global climate change and intensive activities of human beings. The dynamic change of cultivated land was discussed by using the future land use simulation model to simulate the distribution of cultivated land. All the above analysis was done by using the remote sensing image data, the DEM data and socioeconomic statistics data as fundamental data resources. Results showed that the growth rate of cultivated land was decreased gradually from 1990 to 2014, and different time periods showed different changing characteristics. During the period from 1990 to 2002, the area of paddy field was increased dramatically, while that of the dry land was increased slightly, from 2002 to 2014, the growth rate of paddy field area showed significantly decreased characteristics and the total area of dry land was decreased in a certain degree. The spatial pattern showed that the dry land was moving along the northeast-southwest axis in 1990, 2002 and 2014. The spindle rotates in a clockwise direction, and showed stable spatial distribution characteristics. Although the distribution tended to be more discredited, the spatial distribution was decreasing. The paddy field was along the northeast-southwest axis, and from 1990 to 2002, the spindle rotates counterclockwise and the rotated clockwise to 45.31 ° in 2014, and the paddy field also showed the characteristics of discrete distribution, but the polarization characteristic tended to be weakened. By comparing different spatial resolution with simulated distribution of cultivated land by using the future land use simulation model. And the deter

关 键 词：政府间气候变化专门委员会 RCPS情景 FLUS模型 耕地模拟 挠力河流域 

分 类 号：F323.2[经济管理—产业经济]