区域发展战略能促进经济增长吗——以振兴东北老工业基地战略为例  

DOES REGIONAL DEVELOPING STRATEGY PROMOTE ECONOMIC GROWTH——Evidence from Revitalizing the Northeast Traditional Industrial Base

作　　者：杨天宇[1] 荣雨菲 YANG Tian-yu RONG Yu-fei(School of Economics, Renmin University of Chin)

机构地区：[1]中国人民大学经济学院,邮政编码100872

出　　处：《经济理论与经济管理》2017年第10期88-99,共12页Economic Theory and Business Management

基　　金：教育部人文社会科学重点研究基地重大项目(13JJD790036)的资助

摘　　要：为了验证区域发展战略能否促进经济增长,笔者利用2003年实施的振兴东北老工业基地战略作为准自然实验,实证评估了该战略对促进东北地区经济增长的净效应。笔者引入项目评估计量经济学中的合成控制法控制了选择性偏差和由此导致的内生性问题。实证结果表明,振兴东北老工业基地战略的实施,使得东北三省2003年以来的年均经济增长率增加了1.1个百分点~1.6个百分点,但自2007年以来该战略的经济增长效应呈递减趋势。进一步分析发现,振兴东北老工业基地战略的经济增长效应,主要是通过增加投资和政府支出、改善基础设施实现的,人力资本积累、科技进步和投资环境并未改善,产业结构和所有制结构虽有改善但作用有限。因此,这种增长效应容易受到经济周期的冲击而缺乏可持续性。进一步深化东北振兴战略,需要调整对东北地区政策扶持的方向、方式和对象。This paper employs the strategy of revitalizing the northeast traditional industrial base as a natural experiment to evaluate its growth effect and sustainability. Using the synthetic control method, we overcome the endogenous policy and the bias problem of sample selection. We show that the policy had raised the annual real GDP growth in northeast region by about 1.1%-- 1.6 -, but only temporarily. The mechanism to accelerate the economic growth of the policy is mainly the input of physical capital, especial- ly infrastructure. The human capital, technical progress and the investment environment in northeast re- gion is not improved. The industrial and ownership structure is only improved limitedly. This paper sug- gests that in the process of the further northeast development program, the government is supposed to in- crease the input of human capital, innovation and investment environment, reduce the ownership discrimi- nation.

关 键 词：区域发展战略 增长效应 可持续性 合成控制法 

分 类 号：F127[经济管理—世界经济]