江苏省物流业发展对经济增长的作用研究——基于1952-2014年数据的协整分析  

Study on the Effect of Logistics Industry Development on Economic Growth in Jiangsu Province——Co integration analysis based on 1952-2014 data

作　　者：孙波[1] 倪卫红[1] 吴松强[1,2] SUN Bo NI Wei-hong WU Song-qiang(Nanjing University of Technology, Nanjing 211816, China Nanjing University, Nanjing 211102, China)

机构地区：[1]南京工业大学经济与管理学院,江苏南京211816 [2]南京大学管理学院,江苏南京211102

出　　处：《数学的实践与认识》2017年第19期1-10,共10页Mathematics in Practice and Theory

基　　金：江苏省2015年度普通高校研究生实践创新计划项目(SJZZ15_0099);国家社科基金青年项目(13CGL044);52批国家博士后基金(2012M521055);"第六批"国家博士后基金特别资助项目(2013T60527)

摘　　要：基于江苏省1952-2014年的数据对经济增长和物流业发展的关系进行了协整分析、建立误差修正模型、Granger因果关系检验和脉冲响应函数分析.研究发现,物流业规模与经济规模之间存在协整关系和物流业规模对经济规模的单向因果关系.误差修正模型说明物流业规模与经济规模的长期均衡关系对经济发展有显著的调整作用,得出结论物流规模应适度领先于经济规模,应追求物流与经济的可持续发展.Based on the data of 1952-2014 in Jiangsu Province, this paper analyzes the relationship between economic growth and the development of logistics industry, and establishes error correction model, perform Granger causality test and impulse response function analysis. The study found that there is a reliable co integration relationship and unidirectional causality relationship between logistics industry scale and economic scale. Error correction model shows that the long-term equilibrium relationship between logistics industry scale and economic scale on the economy a significant role in the adjustment.The conclusion is that logistics scale should be moderately ahead of economies scale, and sustainable development of the logistics industry and economic is desire to seek.

关 键 词：物流业规模 经济增长 协整分析 误差修正模型 因果分析 

分 类 号：F127[经济管理—世界经济] F224F259.27