财政政策与货币政策对投资消费比的影响研究——基于内生增长模型的实证研究  

Effects of fiscal policy and monetary policy on investment and consumption ratio——Empirical Study Based on Endogenous Growth Model

作　　者：贺俊[1] 王榴燕 万红燕[1] 

机构地区：[1]中国科学技术大学管理学院

出　　处：《投资研究》2017年第5期4-14,共11页Review of Investment Studies

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目"基于内生经济增长理论的中国财政分权效应研究"的支持(71573240)

摘　　要：本文在内生增长理论框架下构建出财政政策、货币政策作用于投资消费比的理论模型,得到货币供给增长率、经济建设支出、非经济建设支出、宏观税负与投资消费比的显式关系式,并运用数值模拟的方法对此关系进行分析。接下来利用全国30个省、直辖市2001—2015年的面板数据进行实证分析,结果显示:货币供给增长率与投资消费比呈现倒U型关系,我国当前处于曲线下降阶段;宏观税负与投资消费比也呈现倒U型关系,我国处于曲线的下降阶段;经济建设支出与投资消费比正相关,而非经济建设支出与投资消费比负相关。This article constructed the theoretical model that fiscal policy and monetary policy act on the investment and con- sumption ratio and obtained the explicit expression of the money supply growth rate, economic construction expenditure , non-economic construction expenditure , macro tax , consumption and investment ratio under the endogenous growth theory framework. And we used the numerical simulation method to analyze this relationship. Then we took advantage of the panel da- ta of the country＇s 30 provinces and municipalities of 2001 - 2015, and the empirical analysis showed ： Money supply growth and the ratio of investment and consumption are in an inverted U -shaped relationship , our country currently is in the down- ward phase of the curve ; macro tax burden and the ratio of investment and consumption is also in an inverted U -shaped rela- tionship , our country is in the downward phase of the curve ; economic construction expenditure and the ratio of investment and consumption positively correlated while non-economic construction expenditure and the ratio of investment and consump- tion negatively correlated.

关 键 词：投资消费比 财政政策 货币政策 内生经济增长 

分 类 号：F126.1[经济管理—世界经济] F812.0F822.0