不同运输方式货运周转量与GDP的协整关系分析  

Analysis on the Cointegration Relationship Between the Freight Turnover Volume of Different Transport Modes and GDP

作　　者：周禹初 温旭红 张仕俊 ZHOU Yu-chu WEN Xu-hong ZHANG Shi-jun(Middle School Affiliated to Beijing Normal University, Beijing 100052, China Transportation Research Institute, China Railway Economics and Planning Research Institute, Beijing 100038, China Research and Development Center, China Railway Express Co., Ltd, Beijing 100070, China)

机构地区：[1]北京师范大学附属中学,北京100052 [2]中国铁路经济规划研究院运输研究所,北京100038 [3]中铁快运股份有限公司研发中心,北京100070

出　　处：《铁道货运》2017年第10期15-19,24,共6页Railway Freight Transport

摘　　要：研究我国1990—2016年货运周转总量,以及铁路、公路和水路货运周转量与国民经济的协整关系,并建立误差修正模型说明我国国民经济与不同运输方式货运周转量短期动态波动与长期均衡的关系。研究表明:国民经济与铁路货运周转量、公路货运周转量和水路货运周转量分别存在唯一的协整关系,铁路货运周转量对国民经济的拉动作用最大。短期国民经济的变化对铁路货运周转量同方向的变动影响最大,对公路货运周转量同方向的变动影响最小。This paper studies the total freight turnover and the cointegration relationship between the railway, road, water freight turnover and the national economy, and builds an error correction model to elaborate the relationship of short-term dynamic fluctuation and long-term balance among them. The study shows that a unique cointegration relationship exists respectively between the national economy and railway, road and water freight turnover, which the railway freight turnover is the strongest driving factor to the national economy. The short-term change of the national economy will cause a maximum same-direction change to the railway freight turnover, and minimum same-direction change to the road freight turnover.

关 键 词：铁路运输 公路运输 水路运输 货运周转量 GDP 协整分析 

分 类 号：F530[经济管理—产业经济]