近10年珠三角城市群经济承载力及空间分异  

Economic Carrying Capacity and Spatial Difference in Pearl River Delta City Group over the Past 10 Years

作　　者：蔡永龙[1] 陈忠暖[1] 刘松 

机构地区：[1]华南师范大学地理科学学院,广州510631 [2]中山大学地理科学与规划学院,广州510275

出　　处：《华南师范大学学报（自然科学版）》2017年第5期92-98,共7页Journal of South China Normal University(Natural Science Edition)

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目(41171141)

摘　　要：选择与珠三角城市群的经济发展水平梯度差异较小的区域内的北京市、苏州市和重庆市等18个城市2005—2014年的人均GDP为修正数据,修正了人口-经济承载力模型,运用修正后的人口-经济承载力模型测度珠三角城市群整体以及城市群内部广州市、深圳市和佛山市等9个城市之间2005—2014年的经济承载力水平,并分析经济承载力水平的空间分异.研究结果显示:珠三角城市群经济承载力趋于小幅波动状态,但城市群内部极化效应显著,涓滴效应仍处于较低水平,区域经济一体化水平较低;城市群内部城市经济承载力等级分化严重,形成以深圳市、广州市、珠海市和佛山市为第一层级,东莞市和中山市为第二层级,惠州市、江门市和肇庆市分列第三~五层级的经济承载力等级体系;地理空间上,形成以深圳市、广州市和珠海市为核心的三大区域,三大区域的经济承载力水平变化趋势为:广州市-佛山市-肇庆市(广佛肇),深圳市-东莞市-惠州市(深莞惠),珠海市-中山市-江门市(珠中江);近10年,珠三角城市群经济承载力呈东高-西低的发展状态,西岸塌陷的阴影效应十分显著.Compared with the economic development level of the Pearl River Delta urban agglomeration,the per capital GDP from 2005 to 2014 of selected 18 cities of those areas with smaller economic development gradient difference as sample data including Beijing,Tianjin and Chongqing and so on are used for population-economic carrying capacity model revision,and the population-economic carrying capacity model is revised. Then,economic bearing capacity of the Pearl River delta urban agglomeration and 9 cities within it from 2005 to 2014 is tested by using revised population-economic carrying capacity model,and the spatial differentiation of economic bearing capacity is analyzed. It is concluded as follows:Firstly,the economic bearing capacity of the pearl river delta urban agglomeration tend to be small fluctuations,but,the interior of the urban agglomeration,polarization effect is very significant; the trickle-down effect is still in the lower levels,and the trickle-down effect is still at the lower level.Secondly,internal urban agglomeration,the level differentiation bearing capacity of urban economic level is very serious,formed in Shenzhen,Guangzhou,Zhuhai and Foshan as the first level,Dongguan and Zhongshan to the next level,Huizhou,Jiangmen and Zhaoqing took three to five levels of economic bearing capacity rating system.Thirdly,the three core area is formed including Guangzhou,Shenzhen and Zhuhai,and the changing trend of three regional' economic bearing capacity level is Guangzhou-Foshan-Zhaoqing(Guang-Fo-Zhao),Shenzhen-Dongguan-Huizhou(Shen-Guan-Hui),and Zhuhai-Zhongshan-Jiangmen(Zhu-Zhong-Jiang) in the geographical space. Finally,for nearly 10 years,the carrying capacity of the pearl river delta urban agglomeration in east area is higher than the western,and the shadow effect of west bank collapse is significant.

关 键 词：珠三角城市群 人口-经济承载力模型 测度 经济承载力 空间分异 

分 类 号：K901[历史地理—人文地理学]