抚仙湖流域蒸发与降水的变化趋势及原因分析  

Variation Trend and Cause Analysis of Evaporation and Precipitation in Fuxian Lake Watershed

作　　者：赵耀 李超[2] 王栋[3] 李文峰[1] 

机构地区：[1]云南农业大学云南省高校农业信息技术重点实验室,云南昆明650201 [2]云南省气象台,云南昆明650034 [3]南京大学-约翰斯.霍普金斯大学中美文化研究中心,江苏南京210000

出　　处：《山东农业科学》2017年第10期100-105,共6页Shandong Agricultural Sciences

基　　金：国土资源部公益性行业科研专项子课题"促进乌蒙山脱贫的国土开发决策支持系统"(201511003-4)

摘　　要：为研究抚仙湖流域蒸发与降水的变化特征及变化原因,本文基于1980—2013年抚仙湖流域降水量、气温、蒸发量、日照时数、风速和相对湿度逐月数据,运用线性趋势、回归分析、累积距平法、M-K法以及相关系数法,分析了抚仙湖流域34年来蒸发与降水变化特征及变化原因。结果表明:抚仙湖流域年降水量呈下降趋势但不显著,2000年以后下降明显,夏季降水超过年降水1/2。年蒸发量总体呈现先下降后上升的"U"型变化,春季蒸发超全年1/3。抚仙湖流域年蒸发量主要受日照时数、平均风速、平均气温影响,均呈极显著正相关。降水量对蒸发量无直接影响,主要是通过对日照时数的影响导致蒸发量的变化,基于日照时数、平均风速、平均气温构建抚仙湖流域蒸发量的预测方程,方程负相关系数达到0.867。In order to study the change characteristics and reasons of evaporation and precipitation in Fuxian Lake watershed,the monthly data about precipitation,temperature,evaporation,sunshine hours,wind speed and relative humidity in Fuxian Lake watershed from 1980 to 2013 were collected,then the change characteristics and reasons of evaporation and precipitation in the past 34 years were researched by the linear trend,regression analysis,cumulative deviation,Mann-Kendall and correlation analysis. The results showed that the annual precipitation of Fuxian Lake watershed decreased with no significance,but decreased significantly after 2000. Summer precipitation exceeded the annual precipitation by 1/2. The annual evaporation showed a U-shaped change. Spring evaporation was over 1/3 of all the year round. The annual evaporation of Fuxian Lake watershed was mainly affected by sunshine hours,average wind speed and average temperature with highly significantly positive correlation. The precipitation had no direct effect on evaporation,and affected evaporation mainly through sunshine hours. This research established a prediction equation based on sunshine hours,average wind speed,average temperature for evaporation of Fuxian Lake watershed with the negativecorrelation coefficient of 0. 867.

关 键 词：抚仙湖流域 气候持续性 气候统计 变化趋势 蒸发 降水 

分 类 号：S161.4[农业科学—农业气象学] S161.6[农业科学—农业基础科学]