湖北省大型扶贫计划的政策效应研究——基于“反事实”思想的实证分析  

Policy Effects of Poverty Alleviation Expenditure in Hubei Province

作　　者：杜为公[1] 王静[1] 

机构地区：[1]武汉轻工大学湖北县域发展研究中心,湖北武汉430023

出　　处：《农林经济管理学报》2017年第5期674-682,共9页Journal of Agro-Forestry Economics and Management

基　　金：国家社会科学基金项目(16BJY102);国家社会科学基金后期资助项目(13FJY007)

摘　　要：国家"八七计划"实施以来,湖北省的贫困现象有了大幅改善,但仍然存在贫困地区基础设施落后、农民素质偏低、集体经济薄弱等问题,因而需要对"八七计划"以来的大型扶贫计划的政策效应进行深入研究。采用Hsiao提出的基于"反事实"思想的政策效应评估模型实证分析湖北省大型扶贫计划的政策效应,研究发现:大型扶贫计划的政策效应在实施初期会逐渐上升至趋于稳定;十八大以后大型扶贫计划的政策效应有了大幅度的提高;地方财政支出、社会固定资产投资和人均受教育年限对扶贫计划的政策效应有显著的积极影响,应当加大贫困地区扶贫财政和农民教育投入,创新发展扶贫产业,建立各级政府扶贫奖惩机制,协同精准扶贫和区域扶贫共同发展的建议。Although Hubei has made great achievements in poverty alleviation since the Seven-Year Priority Poverty Alleviation Program,it is confronted with problems in infrastructure,farmers＇ education and the collective economy.Therefore,it is necessary to examine the political effects of large expenditure on poverty alleviation.Based on the ideal of ＂counterfactual＂,the Hsiao political evaluation model is adopted to conduct an empirical analysis of the political effects of large expenditure on poverty alleviation in Hubei. It found that the effects would tend to increase in the beginning and tend to be stable in the end,that the effects had been greatly improved after the 18 th CPC National Congress; and that local fiscal expenditure,investment in fixed assets and years of education on average had a significant positive effect on the effects.Therefore it is necessary to increase investment in poverty alleviation finance and farmer education,develop and renovate industries for poverty alleviation,establish the precise mechanism of rewards and punishments,and encourage collaboration between regions.

关 键 词：湖北省 扶贫 政策效应 反事实 

分 类 号：F328[经济管理—产业经济]