基于最大熵的电网停电事故损失负荷预测  

Lost Load Forecasting of Power Grid Blackouts Based on Maximum Entropy

作　　者：曹娜 曹爽爽 于群 贺庆[2] 

机构地区：[1]山东科技大学电气与自动化工程学院,山东青岛266590 [2]中国电力科学研究院,北京100085

出　　处：《山东科技大学学报（自然科学版）》2017年第5期65-71,共7页Journal of Shandong University of Science and Technology(Natural Science)

基　　金：国家电网公司2014年科技项目

摘　　要：损失负荷作为评估停电事故危险等级的主要指标之一,其预测问题对停电事故预防工作有重要的实际意义。基于熵理论,分析了停电事故的最大熵特征,提出了损失负荷的最大熵预测模型。以GS电网为例,综合考虑损失负荷的历史数据与仿真数据,利用最大熵预测模型对电网停电事故进行预测,给出不同预测年限下的损失负荷预测结果。通过与其他方法的预测结果及事故实际数据的比较分析,验证了所提预测模型的有效性。Since lost load is one of the main indexes to evaluate the risk grade of power grid blackouts, has important practical significance for the prevention of blackouts. Based on the entropy theorthe maximum entropy characteristics of blackouts and put forward the maximum entropy prediction model. With the example of GS power grid, this model was used to forecast power blackouts by taking both the historical data and simulation data of lost load mto consideration, and forecasting results of lost load under different forecast periods were given. The validity of the proposed model was veriiied by comparing the results predicted by tother methods and the actual data of blackouts.

关 键 词：损失负荷 最大熵 预测模型 历史数据 仿真数据 

分 类 号：TM732[电气工程—电力系统及自动化]