新常态下PPP环保项目风险预警云模型研究  

The Risk Forewarning Cloud Model of PPP Environmental Protection in the New Normal

作　　者：李娟芳 何亚伯[2] 

机构地区：[1]许昌学院土木工程学院,河南许昌461000 [2]武汉大学土木建筑工程学院,湖北武汉430072

出　　处：《技术经济与管理研究》2017年第11期26-30,共5页Journal of Technical Economics & Management

基　　金：2016年度河南省科技厅科技攻关项目(162102310125);河南省大学生创新创业训练计划项目(201710480008)

摘　　要：文章基于模糊-粗糙集理论和云模型理论构建了PPP环保项目风险预警模型,对PPP环保项目面临的风险因素及评价方法进行归类整理,报告了目前PPP项目风险识别与评价存在的不足之处,通过采用文献分析、理论研究、访谈和实地调研相结合的方法,展开对我国PPP环保项目风险因素的调查研究,提出了包含10个一级风险指标、30个二级风险指标的风险预警指标体系,并以武汉新洲区项目为例分析验证了模型的实践性。模型结果表明:新洲区项目总体处于中等风险等级,其中,融资可获性、政策法规保障、政府监管体制不健全等方面的风险水平较高,需重点关注并制定相应的防控应对机制。据此提出了相应的政策建议:开拓多元化融资渠道;完善政府监管体制;建立合理的风险分担机制;明确合作人之间的权利与义务;提高合作信用等,以期实现我国PPP环保项目的成功运营。Based on fuzzy-rough set theory and cloud model theory it builds the risk forewarning model of PPP projects of environmentalprotection,categorizes the risk factors and the evaluation method for PPP projects of environmental protection,reports the shortcomingsfor risk identification and evaluation of PPP projects at present,uses the combining method of literature analysis,theoreticalresearch,interviews and field research,carries out research on PPP projects of environmental protection in our country,it puts forwardrisk forewarning indexes system containing 10 level index and 30 secondary risk index,the fuzzy rough set theory and cloud modeltheory are also introduced to build a risk forewarning model of PPP projects of environmental protection. Based on the Xinzhou project inWuhan,we demonstrate the model＇s practicality,the study discloses that the project is in medium level of risk,but the risks ofavailability of financing、perfection of policies and regulations、defective of government regulation system are grievous that need morefocus and prevention mechanism. Based on this,it includes：exploring diversified financing channels;improving the government supervisionsystem;establishing a reasonable risk sharing mechanism,clarifying the rights and obligations between the partners,improvingthe cooperation credit and other policy suggestions,so as to realize the successful operation of PPP environmental project.

关 键 词：PPP项目 环保项目 融资模式 风险识别 

分 类 号：F283[经济管理—国民经济]