台风与区域经济损失关联性评价——以广西为例  

Correlation Evaluation of Typhoon and Regional Economic Losses——Take Guangxi as An Example

作　　者：刘家养[1] 

机构地区：[1]广西财经学院金融学院,广西南宁530003

出　　处：《技术经济与管理研究》2017年第11期118-123,共6页Journal of Technical Economics & Management

基　　金："广西高等学校数理金融高水平创新团队及卓越学者计划"资助项目;广西财经学院数量经济学自治区级重点学科;数量经济学自治区级重点实验室;广西经济预测与决策中心开放性联合招标课题(2015ZDKT05)

摘　　要：投入产出模型经常用于分析新产品部门之间的相互影响,主要是基于社会各个部门之间的相互关联关系,采用这一方法来评估台风损失的关联性就具有了理论基础。文章正是基于投入产出模型,首先对评估台风灾害风险的理论和方法进行了梳理,讨论了广西台风风险的评估过程。然后基于投入产出模型分析指出台风对广西农业产生的影响,利用部门之间的关联性引致其它产品部门发生的关联经济损失。为了得到更加具有代表性的数据分析结果,利用广西42部门投入产出表数据,采用2005-2011年的年平均数值,以此避免台风极值年份(如2004年)带来的极端影响。在此基础上评估台风灾害对劳动者报酬、国民收入、就业等方面的影响,对有关部门制定防灾防损政策、减少台风灾害造成的经济损失有一定的现实指导意义。Because of the interrelationship within the socio-economic system, the input-output model is easy to analyze the influencebetween the product departments. It has better theoretical foundation and practical significance using input-output principle to evaluativethe relevance of disaster losses. Based on the input-output model,in this paper,we firstly sort out the theory and method of typhoondisaster risk assessment,and then discusses the assessment process of typhoon risk in Guangxi. Next,we discuss how the inputoutputmodel is used to analyze the influence of typhoon on the agriculture of Guangxi. Secondly,we want to know how the interrelatedeconomic losses are incurred by the agricultural sector due to the intersectorial linkages in all sectors. In order to obtain more representativedata analysis results,we use the Guangxi 42 sector input-output table data,which between 2005-2011 annual average value,avoiding the typhoon extreme year （such as 2004） brings about the extreme influence. On this basis,we can assess the impact of thetyphoon disaster to worker＇s compensation,national income,employment and other aspects. It has some practical significance for therelevant departments to develop disaster prevention and mitigation policies and reduce economic losses caused by the typhoon disaster.

关 键 词：台风损失 气象经济 灾害评估 关联经济 

分 类 号：P444[天文地球—大气科学及气象学]