基于“从一般到特殊”法的入境旅游需求预测——以上海主要入境客源市场为例  

General-to-Specific Modeling Approach for Forecasting Inbound Tourism Demand——Case Study of International Sourced Markets of Shanghai

作　　者：陈镇 金浏河[2] 张建强 

机构地区：[1]海南热带海洋学院旅游学院,海南三亚572022 [2]浙江工贸职业技术学院管理学院,浙江温州325003

出　　处：《海南热带海洋学院学报》2017年第5期96-102,共7页Journal of Hainan Tropical Ocean University

基　　金：海南省哲学社会科学规划项目(HNSK(YB)16-13);海南省高等学校科学研究项目(HNJGZD201410)

摘　　要：基于2004-2015年上海5个主要入境客源国(澳大利亚、法国、新加坡、韩国和菲律宾)的数据,采用自回归分析滞后模型(ADLM),以及"从一般到特殊"的分析方法解析上海入境旅游需求的基本影响因素并形成入境人数预测值.实证研究表明,客源地的真实经济状况、旅游季节性特征、旅游者的经济收入是入境旅游需求的主要因素;"口碑效应"、旅游价格、舆情动态、不可控因素等同样对上海入境市场需求构成不同程度的影响.通过对5个入境客源市场的旅游需求弹性分析,为上海市旅游产业政策的制定和发展战略提供建议和依据.Based on the data of five major international source markets-Australia,France,Singapore,Korea and Philippines-from 2004 to 2015,this paper used the autoregressive distributed lag model (ADLM) and the general-to-specific modeling approach to identify the most influential factors in Shanghai's inbound tourism demand and to forecast the international tourist arrivals of the city.The empirical results revealed that the major factors determining the international demand for Shanghai tourism are the economic condition in the origin countries,tourism seasonality issues,and tourists' income.Meanwhile,the costs of travelling,' word-of-mouth effect' and some special one-off events also have significant impact on the demand of Shanghai's international inbound tourism market.Suggestions and recommendations for policy making were made based on the analysis of elasticity of demand obtained from the demand models.

关 键 词：入境旅游需求 回归分析滞后模型 需求弹性 客源市场 

分 类 号：F590.9[经济管理—旅游管理]