基于WCSODS的小麦旱涝灾损区域化监测与精细化评估  

Regional monitoring and refined assessment for damage from wheat drought and waterlogging based on WCSODS

作　　者：葛道阔[1] 曹宏鑫[1] 杨余旺[2] 马晓群[3] 张文宇[1] 张伟欣[1] 

机构地区：[1]江苏省农业科学院农业经济与信息研究所,江苏南京210014 [2]南京理工大学计算机科学与工程学院,江苏南京210094 [3]安徽省气象科学研究所,安徽合肥230061

出　　处：《江苏农业学报》2017年第5期1062-1068,共7页Jiangsu Journal of Agricultural Sciences

基　　金：江苏省农业科技自主创新基金项目[CX(13)3054]

摘　　要：采用国内外广泛应用的气候数据插值专用软件-ANUSPLIN,插值生成江苏、安徽、山东和河南4个小麦主产省代表性区域1971-2015年逐年的5 km×5 km分辨率的网格化逐日数据集,数据包括逐日平均、最高气温、最低气温、降水量和日照时数等。结合经改进的WCSODS(小麦栽培模拟优化决策系统)的区域化方法,并利用相关监测数据,开展了研究区域冬小麦旱涝灾害损失的区域化监测与精细化评估。结果表明:作物模型评估的灾损率等级与实际灾损率等级在空间分布上表现一致,区域内所有格点灾损率等级基本准确率(等级差≤1)为83.3%,其中完全准确率(等级差=0)为62.3%。研究区域冬小麦有典型的北部偏旱、南部偏涝的分布特点,且干旱灾损一般大于涝渍灾损。整个研究区域平均而言,干旱和涝渍灾损均有随年份微弱减少的趋势。In this study,a climate data interpolation software,ANUSPLIN,is used to generate a grid-based daily data set for the representative region in major wheat producing provinces,Jiangsu,Anhui,Shandong and Henan from 1971 to 2015,with daily average,maximum and minimum temperature,precipitation and sunshine hours. Based on the improved WCSODS( wheat cultivation simulation optimization decision system) regionalization method,by using the relevant monitoring data,the regional monitoring and refined assessment of loss of winter wheat drought and waterlogging disaster in the study region was performed. The spatial distribution of the damage rate grade of the crop model was consistent with the actual damage rate grade,and the accuracy( grade difference ≤1) of all grid points in the region was 83.3%. The study region was characterized by northern drought and southern waterlogging,and the drought damage was generally greater than waterlogging. Overall,the drought and waterlogging damage showed a tendency of slightly weakening over years.

关 键 词：冬小麦 模型 旱涝 精细化 损失评估 

分 类 号：S512.1[农业科学—作物学]