基于SPI和HI的淮河上中游流域气象干旱特征分析  

Analysis on Drought Characteristic in the Upper and Middle Reaches of Huaihe River Basin Based on SPI and HI

作　　者：郭佳香 王景才 周建康 

机构地区：[1]扬州大学水利与能源动力工程学院,江苏扬州225009

出　　处：《人民珠江》2017年第10期33-38,共6页Pearl River

基　　金：江苏省高校自然科学研究面上资助经费项目(15KJB170019);扬州大学科技创新培育基金项目(2015CXJ032);江苏高校优势学科建设工程资助项目;江苏省水利动力工程重点实验室资助项目(K13019)

摘　　要：通过计算淮河上中游流域1960—2014年近55 a共19个气象站的标准化降水指数(SPI)和地表湿润指数(HI)。并采用数理统计的方法对两种指数的面平均值进行时间趋势分析;利用IDM法对两种指数的线性倾向率和M-K值进行空间分析。结果表明:(1)该流域降水量南多北少,近年来有减少趋势;(2)该流域干旱趋势加剧,1966、1967、1976、1978、1981、1986、1988、1999、2001、2013年全流域干旱;(3)空间上,西部和南部干旱化情况比东部和北部严重;(4)HI在判断该流域干旱特征时较SPI更敏感。研究结果可为淮河中上游流域旱情预测及预警提供理论参考,对防旱抗旱减灾和粮食生产安全具有重要意义。This paper calculated standardized precipitation index and surface humid index of the upper and middle reaches of Huaihe River Basin based on the 19 weather stations data from 1960 to 2014.The time tendency analysis of surface average of two indexes were analyzed by mathematical statistics,and the linear tendency rate and M-K value of two indexes were analyzed by IDM spatial method.Results showed that the south precipitation was more than north precipitation,and it had a decreasing trend.The drought was increasing,especially in 1996,1961,1976,1978,1981,1986,1986,1999,2001 and 2013,which was extended whole basin.In terms of spatial,the drought in the west and south was worse than that in the east and north.HI was more sensitive than SPI in determining drought characteristics of the basin.The results could provide basic data for drought forecasting and early warning in the upper and middle reached of Huaihe river basin,and it was important to drought mitigation and food production safety.

关 键 词：干旱指数 标准化降水指数 地表湿润指数 淮河上中游流域 

分 类 号：S342.1[农业科学—作物栽培与耕作技术]