基于结构调整的河南省粮食增产影响因素贡献率测度  

Contribution Factors of Grain Production Growth Based on the Perspective of Structure Adjustment in Henan

作　　者：陈振[1] 李佩华[1] 

机构地区：[1]河南农业大学信息与管理科学学院,郑州450002

出　　处：《河南科学》2017年第10期1702-1707,共6页Henan Science

基　　金：河南省高校重点科研项目(17A790027;17A630028);河南省教育厅人文社科项目(2017-ZZJH-237)

摘　　要：选取2004—2014年河南省粮食生产数据,基于结构调整的视角,对促使河南省粮食增产的各因素贡献率进行测算分解.结果表明,粮食单产水平提升是河南省粮食增产的主要贡献因素,但其存在年际间的波动性;播种面积则是保证粮食增产更为稳定持久的贡献因素;结构调整虽能通过挖掘作物间的单产差来促使粮食加权单产的提升,但其对粮食总量增产的贡献率较低,且以粮食增产为导向的结构调整模式,进一步加大市场的供需矛盾.因此,稳定粮食播种面积,提高各类作物单产水平,是保证河南省粮食长期以来高产稳产的有效措施,依靠市场需求导向来适度调整粮食种植结构,是解决河南省粮食供需结构性矛盾的关键所在.This paper selects the grain production data of Henan province from 2004 to 2014,based on the perspectiveof supply side structure adjustment,it calculates the decomposition of various factors to grain yield in Henanprovince. The results shows that the improvement of grain yield level is the main contribution factor of grainproduction in Henan province,but the fluctuation of its inter annual contribution to grain production is not stable.The planting area is a more stable and lasting contribution factor to grain yield. We find the structural adjustment topromote grain yield increases by mining weighted yield difference between crops,but its contribution to the totalgrain yield rate is low. And the grain output oriented structural adjustment mode,increases the market supply anddemand contradiction. Therefore the stability of the grain planting area and improve crops yield level are theeffective measures to ensure nigh and stable yield for a long time in Henan province. In accordance with marketdemand oriented to adjust the structure of grain planting is the key to solve the structural contradiction of grainsupply and demand in Henan province.

关 键 词：粮食增产 结构调整 作物单产 贡献率 供需矛盾F304.5A 

分 类 号：S23[农业科学—农业机械化工程]