政绩评价如何影响村民在村委会选举中的投票意愿——来自辽宁省的经验证据  

How Villagers' Evaluation of Cadres' Performances Influences Their Willingness to Vote in the Elections of Village Committees:Evidence from Liaoning Province

作　　者：郑广琯 Zheng Guangguan

机构地区：[1]中国财政科学研究院 [2]中共盘锦市委党校

出　　处：《中国农村经济》2017年第10期64-79,共16页Chinese Rural Economy

摘　　要：中国农村治理体制与经济体制改革互相促进。提高村民政治参与水平有利于巩固村民自治制度,促进经济发展。本文使用辽宁省8市74村农村居民的调查数据,运用线性概率模型分析村民对村干部的政绩评价如何影响其参与村委会选举的投票意愿。本文使用村民对村干部五方面工作业绩评分的算术平均值作为对村干部政绩评价的指标,研究发现政绩评价与村民投票意愿之间存在显著的"正U型"关系。当政绩评价是正面时,随着政绩评价的提升,村民投票意愿上升,倾向于支持现任干部当选;当政绩评价是负面时,随着政绩评价的下降,村民投票意愿上升,倾向于反对现任干部当选。上级加强对村委会的支持与对村委会选举的监督,有效改善村民对村干部的政绩评价,将可以提高村民的政治参与水平。In rural China, social governance and economic development promote each other. An increase in political participation of villagers is beneficial to consolidating the system of grassroots autonomy and accelerating economic development. Using the survey data from 74 villages located in 8 cities in Liaoning Province, this article analyzes how villagers＇ evaluation of rural cadres＇ performances influence their willingness to vote in the elections of village committees. It uses a linear probability model and takes arithmetic means of 5 evaluation indicators from villagers＇ evaluation to measure cadres＇ performances. The results show a significant U-shape relationship between villagers＇ evaluation and their willingness to vote. A positive evaluation of cadres＇ performances leads to an increase in villagers＇ willingness to vote and their support to the incumbent cadres to be elected. A negative evaluation of cadres＇ performances results in an increase in villagers＇ willingness to vote in order to oppose the incumbent cadres. If higher administrative officials can increase the support to village committees and strengthen the supervision of village elections, villagers＇ evaluation of cadres＇ performances is likely to be improved. This may increase viUagers＇ political participation.

关 键 词：村委会选举 投票意愿 政绩评价 

分 类 号：D621.4[政治法律—政治学]