基于量化潜在GDP的中国经济新常态解读  

Interpretation of China's Economic New Normal Based on Quantative Potential GDP

作　　者：汤金润 王飞[2] Tang Jinrun Wang Fei(HSBC School of Business, Beijing University, Shenzhen Guangdong 518055, China School of Economics, Minzu University of China, Beijing 100081,china)

机构地区：[1]北京大学汇丰商学院,广东深圳518055 [2]中央民族大学经济学院,北京100081

出　　处：《统计与决策》2017年第21期23-28,共6页Statistics & Decision

摘　　要：文章在测算我国资本存量的基础上,采用状态空间模型与生产函数法相结合的方式,对我国1978—2014年的潜在GDP进行估算。分析了各生产要素的产出贡献比、要素产出比、边际产量的变化趋势,从供给面对我国经济新常态进行解读。研究表明:中国经济正处于"新常态"与"旧常态"交替的过程中,资本边际产量下降、劳动年龄人口增长缓慢、TFP增长率下降是中国潜在GDP增长率下降的主要原因;资本收入替代劳动收入已成趋势,并有进一步深化态势;中国企业在新常态背景下普遍面临盈利水平下降,运营成本上升的困难;中国宏观经济调控政策将逐步从需求面的管理转向侧重于供给面的调控。On the basis of estimation on China＇s capital stock, this paper uses the state space model and the approach of combining the production function method to estimate China＇ s potential GDP from 1978 to 2014. And then the paper analyzes the variation trend of output-input contribution ratios, output-input ratios of production factors, and marginal products. Finally the pa- per interprets the new normal of China＇ s economy from the angle of supply side. The research resuh shows that China＇ s economy is in an alternate process of ＂new normal＂ and ＂old normal＂; the decline of capital marginal product, slow increase of working-age population and decreasing TFP growth rate mainly account for the decline of China＇ s potential GDP growth rate; capital revenue takes the place of labor income, which becomes a trend and tends to get deeper; under the background of the new normal, Chinese enterprises are generally faced with difficulties of profitability decline and operating costs going up; China＇ s macroeconomic regulation and control will gradually veer from administration on demand side to supply side.

关 键 词：经济新常态 潜在GDP 生产函数法 状态空间模型 

分 类 号：F061.2[经济管理—政治经济学]