气候变化背景下祁连山区负积温时空变化特征分析  

Spatial and Temporal Variation Characteristics of Accumulated Negative Temperature in Qilian Mountains under Climate Change

作　　者：王希强 陈仁升 刘俊峰[1,2] WANG Xiqiang CHEN Rensheng LIU Junfeng(Qilian Alpine Ecology and Hydrology Research Station, Northwest Institute of Eco-Environment and Resources Chinese Academy of Sciences, Lanzhou 730000, China Key Laboratory of Inland Ecohydrology, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Lanzhou 730000, China University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100049, China)

机构地区：[1]中国科学院西北生态环境资源研究院黑河上游生态-水文试验研究站,兰州730000 [2]中国科学院内陆河流域生态水文重点实验室,兰州730000 [3]中国科学院大学,北京100049

出　　处：《高原气象》2017年第5期1267-1275,共9页Plateau Meteorology

基　　金：国家重点基础研究发展计划(2013CBA01086);国家自然科学基金项目(41671029;91225302)

摘　　要：基于祁连山区及周边32个气象站点56年气象资料和较高分辨率DEM数据,采用"多元回归+残差插值"方法,运用多种空间插值手段,获取研究区负积温空间栅格化数据,并详细分析其时空变化特征。结果表明:(1)研究区多年平均负积温(绝对值)分布在607~3507℃之间,区域分布差异较大;积温段Ⅲ、Ⅳ和Ⅱ共占据研究区总面积的91.31%;除积温段Ⅵ外,其余按顺序近似呈环状分布,积温值由外向内递增;栅格尺度负积温动态度自南向北,基本呈带状递减。(2)研究区所有站点均表现出负积温初日推迟、终日提前、持续天数缩短趋势,绝大部分站点通过显著性检验。(3)从1960年代到2000年代期间,积温段Ⅰ和Ⅱ面积持续减少,积温段Ⅴ和Ⅵ面积持续增加,是全球气候变暖的必然结果,但近期却表现出相反趋势,表明从2000年代到2010年以后(2010—2015年),变暖趋势处于相对停滞阶段;积温段Ⅲ和Ⅳ面积分别呈波动减少和增加趋势,增减幅度较小。(4)积温段Ⅲ~Ⅳ(25.72%)、Ⅳ~Ⅴ(19.66%)和Ⅱ~Ⅲ(17.90%)是研究区负积温转移的主要类型;从2000年代到2010年以后(2010—2015年),负积温表现为单向转移,即:从积温值较高段向较低段转移;相邻年代间,负积温存在双向转移,但从积温值较高积温段向较低积温段转移仍占绝对优势,体现了气候波动变暖趋势。Under the background of climate change,the warming trend in China is significant,especially in winter,which has changed the degree and the spatio-temporal distributions of heat resources. Based on the meteorological data of 32 meteorological stations over the past 56 years in and around the Qilian Mountains and DEMdata,rasterizing accumulated negative temperature data was conducted using the ＂multiple regression plus residual interpolation＂method. Results of cross-validation errors revealed that OK gave the best simulation. The results of spatial and temporal variation showed that：（ 1） Annual average absolute values of accumulated negative temperature were ranged from 607 ℃ to 3507 ℃ in the study area,and the differentiation of regional distributing was large; The area of accumulated temperature segment Ⅲ,Ⅳ and Ⅱcaptured nearly 91. 31% of total area; The accumulated temperature segments presented nearly ring distribution and rised gradually from outside to inside exceptⅥ; On grid scale,the dynamic index of accumulated negative temperature decreased gradually from south to north.（ 2） By using the methods of linear trend estimates,from 1960 to 2015,the results indicated that the initial date showed an obvious delaying tendency with the linear rate of 1. 3 d·（ 10 a）-1,the termination date showed an obvious forward tendency with the linear rate of 2. 4 d·（ 10 a）-1,and the sustainable days showed an obvious declining tendency with the linear rate of 3. 7 d·（ 10 a）-1. Most of the stations passed the statistical tests of P 0. 1.（ 3）From 1960 s to 2000 s,the area of accumulated temperature segment Ⅰ and Ⅱ decreased significantly,and accumulated temperature segment Ⅴ and Ⅵ increased significantly,which was the most obvious characteristic in Qilian Mountains. However,the trend was opposite from 2000 s to after 2010（ 2010—2015）,which may be the result of warming stagnation. The area of accumulated temperature segment Ⅲ and Ⅳ decreased and increased respectively,

关 键 词：负积温 时空变化 祁连山 积温转移 空间插值 

分 类 号：P468.0[天文地球—大气科学及气象学]