基于马尔克夫灰色残差GM(1,1)模型的HTPB推进剂贮存寿命预估  

Shelf-life prediction for HTPB propellant based on a Markov grey residual GM(1,1) model

作　　者：杜永强[1] 郑坚[1] 彭威[1] 张晓[1] 顾志旭[1] 刘忠会 

机构地区：[1]军械工程学院 [2]65185部队

出　　处：《固体火箭技术》2017年第5期588-591,613,共5页Journal of Solid Rocket Technology

摘　　要：针对Arrhenius方程将活化能假设与温度无关的常数,给HTPB(端羟基聚丁二烯)推进剂寿命预估引入了误差的问题,提出了基于马尔克夫灰色残差GM(1,1)模型的寿命预估方法。对HTPB推进剂进行了高温加速寿命试验,以最大延伸率作为性能变化表征参数,根据老化反应速率常数随温度的变化关系,建立了马尔克夫灰色残差GM(1,1)模型,对常温条件下推进剂的老化反应速率常数进行了预测,并预估了HTPB推进剂在常温条件下的贮存寿命为11.74 a。To solve the problem that the activation energy is assumed to be independent of temperature in the Arrhenius equation,which introduces error to the shelf-life prediction of HTPB propellant,the storage life prediction method was proposed based on Markov grey residual GM（1,1） model.The high temperature accelerated life test of HTPB propellant was carried out,and the maximum elongation was used as the characteristic parameter.According to the relationship between the aging reaction rate constant with temperature change,the Markov grey residual GM（1,1） model was established.The aging reaction rate constant of propellant under room temperature was predicted,and the storage life of HTPB propellant under room temperature condition was estimated for 11.74 years.

关 键 词：HTPB推进剂 高温加速寿命试验 马尔克夫灰色残差GM(1 1)模型 寿命预估 

分 类 号：V512[航空宇航科学与技术—航空宇航推进理论与工程]