农户尺度的黄土高原乡村干旱脆弱性及适应机理  

Rural household vulnerability to drought and adaptation mechanism on the Loess Plateau

作　　者：石育中[1] 王俊[1] 王子侨 鲁大铭 杨新军[1] SHI Yuzhong WANG Jun WANG Ziqiao LU Daming YANG Xinjun(College of Urban and Environmental Sciences, Northwest University, Xi＇an 710127, China)

机构地区：[1]西北大学城市与环境学院,西安710127

出　　处：《地理科学进展》2017年第10期1281-1293,共13页Progress in Geography

基　　金：教育部人文社会科学研究项目(12YJC840040);国家自然科学基金项目(41571163);陕西高校人文社会科学青年英才支持计划项目~~

摘　　要：干旱脆弱性及人类对干旱的适应机理分析是干旱及半干旱地区人地关系研究的重要内容,也是西北地区乡村人地系统可持续性研究的新视角。本文运用Turner脆弱性分析框架,将其改进应用到黄土高原乡村农户的干旱脆弱性及其适应领域,选取榆中县和长武县气象数据和农户调查数据,应用主成分分析、综合指数法、差异性分析和鲁棒性分析等方法分别对指标权重、农户干旱脆弱性指数及其差异性与脆弱性指数的不确定性进行分析与检验,并从适应能力、适应策略和适应模式三个层面揭示适应机理。主要结论为:(1)中连川乡农户干旱脆弱性指数大于洪家镇,且不同村落间农户干旱脆弱性指数差异显著;(2)农户干旱适应机理为暴露—敏感性影响农户收入,农户生计系统是适应干旱暴露扰动的决定因子,农户类型、生计方式、土地利用、灌溉设施和政策扶持的差异性产生不同的适应模式和适应效果;(3)农户干旱脆弱性指数排名出现频率较高且排名变化范围较小,具有较强的鲁棒性,表明农户干旱脆弱性计算结果具有稳健性。Analyzing vulnerability and adaptation to drought is an important part of the study on humanenvironment relationship in arid and semiarid regions. It has also become the new viewpoint of humanenvironment system sustainability research in the rural areas of northwestern China. This research adopted the framework of vulnerability analysis proposed by Turner and adapted it for analyzing rural household vulnerability and adaptation to drought on the Loess Plateau. It integrated and analyzed meteorological data and questionnaire survey to examine household drought vulnerability and difference and inspected the uncertainty of the results applying Principal Component Analysis, Difference Analysis, and Robustness Analysis methods. This study also revealed the mechanism of adaptation to drought with regard to adaptive capacity, adaptation strategies, and adaptation mode. The main results include：（1） there exist significant differences between the villages in drought vulnerability index values—the vulnerability value of Zhonglianchuan is higher than that of Hongjia;（2） with regard to adaptation mechanism, exposure-sensitivity influences farmer income, farmer livelihood system determinates adaptive capacity, and differences in the type of household, livelihood strategy,land use, irrigation facilities, and policy support generate different adaptation modes and consequence;（3） the high frequency and narrow range of household drought vulnerability index indicates relatively high robustness of the result.

关 键 词：农户干旱脆弱性 适应机理 鲁棒性分析 黄土高原 

分 类 号：P426.616[天文地球—大气科学及气象学]