猪肉储备政策对价格的影响及福利分析  

The Impact of Pork Reserve Policy on Price Fluctuation and Welfare

作　　者：虞祎[1] 张晖[2] 

机构地区：[1]南京农业大学经济管理学院,江苏南京210095 [2]南京林业大学经济管理学院,江苏南京210037

出　　处：《南京农业大学学报（社会科学版）》2017年第6期101-109,共9页Journal of Nanjing Agricultural University(Social Sciences Edition)

基　　金：国家自然科学基金青年项目"储备调控对猪肉价格波动的影响研究"(71403123);南京农业大学中央高校基本科研业务费人文社科基金项目"家禽产业经济岗位科学家培育"(SKGW2016001);江苏省高校优势学科建设工程资助项目(PAPD)

摘　　要：通过构建包含政府干预的理性预期库存模型,根据中国生猪和猪肉市场特征及储备政策对模型各项参数进行校准,模拟了政策干预对猪粮比、生产者和消费者福利以及政策成本的影响。研究发现,储备调控下猪粮比基本在预设区间内,但猪粮比峰谷值的差距增大。在干预政策下,能够增进消费者的福利,而对生产者的福利产生损失,政策成本主要由储存成本决定。政府可以适当控制储备规模,完善生猪及猪肉市场的监测预警体系,选择合适的时机干预市场并加强对商业库存的引导。Based on the rational expectation storage model with government intervention,this paper calibrates the parameters of the model according to the characteristics of the Chinese pig and pork market and the government reserve policy,and simulates the long-term trend of price ratio of hog to corn.This paper also estimates the producer,consumer welfare variability and policy costs.The results show that the implementation of the reserve policy can really control the price ratio in the preset range,but the gap between max and min value of price ratio is increased.With the intervention policy,there is an increase in consumer welfare but a loss of producer welfare.P olicy cost mainly depends on physical storage cost.The results imply that the government does not have to expand the scale of reserves,but should improve the monitoring system of early warning system for pig and pork market.With proper time selected and coordinating with commercial inventories,better policy performance can be obtained.

关 键 词：理性预期库存模型 猪肉储备 价格波动 福利 

分 类 号：F326[经济管理—产业经济]