基于系统熵值分析的水资源复合系统承载力可变模糊综合研究  

Variable Fuzzy Comprehensive Research on Water Resources Compound System Carrying Capacity Based on the Analysis of the System Entropy

作　　者：薛联青[1,2] 时佳[1] 陈新芳[1] 张洛晨 孙超[3] 

机构地区：[1]河海大学水文水资源学院,南京210098 [2]石河子大学,新疆石河子832003 [3]新疆塔里木河流域管理局,新疆库尔勒841000

出　　处：《中国农村水利水电》2017年第10期1-5,共5页China Rural Water and Hydropower

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目(41371052;U1203282);水利部公益性行业专项(201501059);江苏省"青蓝"工程;江苏省高校优秀中青年教师和校长境外研修项目

摘　　要：水资源的承载能力是其所在区域内整个社会经济-水资源-生态环境复合系统功能的宏观体现。通过计算系统有序度熵值,评测调控各子系统发展协同程度,并利用可变模糊综合评价方法对水资源复合系统的调控效果作出评价,旨在加强各子系统联合效应,提高流域水资源承载水平。将构建的水资源承载力调控评价模型应用于叶尔羌河流域,经评测,2013年水资源承载力评分为0.51~0.73分,此时流域各子系统发展严重失衡,照此趋势发展,2020年评分为0.36~0.60,分值下降,承载力降低;经过系统熵值分析调控后分值维持在0.69~0.88,承载力水平明显提高。结果表明,该模型可以科学的模拟优化各子系统发展趋势,提高水资源复合系统承载水平,有利于流域可持续发展。The carrying capacity of water resources in the area is a macroscopic embodiment of the complex system function including the whole water resources, ecological environment and socio-economic. This paper evaluates the degree of coordination of the subsystems by calculating the degree of entropy of the system. And fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method is used to evaluate the regulation effects of the compound system of water resources, aiming at strengthening the joint effects of each subsystem and improving the water resources carrying capacity of the river basin. The evaluation model of water resources carrying capacity is applied to the Yarkant River Basin. The water resources carrying capacity score was 0.51-0.73 points in 2013, and the development of each subsystem is seriously imbalanced. According to the trend, the score will be 0.36-0.60 points in 2020, the two indexes, the score and the bearing capacity have decreased. By the system entropy control, the score is maintained at 0.69 ~ 0.88 ,the bearing capacity level is significantly improved. The results show that the model can scientifically simulate and optimize the development trend of each subsystem, raise the carrying level of the compound system of water resources, and promote the sustainable development of watershed.

关 键 词：水资源承载力 叶尔羌河流域 复合系统 可变模糊综合评价法 熵值 

分 类 号：TV212.4[水利工程—水文学及水资源]