货币超发下的通货紧缩——基于新货币主义的视角  

Currency Over-issue and Deflation:A New Monetarist Perspective

作　　者：潘士远[1] 章耀[1] 

机构地区：[1]浙江大学经济学院,浙江杭州310027

出　　处：《浙江大学学报（人文社会科学版）》2017年第5期213-225,共13页Journal of Zhejiang University:Humanities and Social Sciences

摘　　要：通过新货币主义模型探究中国近年来出现的货币超发和通货紧缩共存现象,研究结论表明,相较于民营企业,国有企业容易得到更多的贷款。生产效率较低的国有企业成为流动性的持有者,吸收了超发的货币,进而导致通货紧缩。基于理论分析,为改善现有货币政策的实施效果,应盘活国有企业的过剩资金,积极推进去杠杆化,改善市场竞争生态,并适当引入民营企业。A new paradox in China is that on one hand, currency over-issue and deflation coexist. Currency has been over-issued, resulting in an M2/GDP ratio that is far above the normal level and ranks among the highest in the world. Thus, a traditional monetary theory would predict that the PPI and inflation would quickly increase. However, the PPI has decreased in the past few years. This paper attempts to explain this paradox by applying the theory of New Monetarism, a new monetary theory based on the search-match method. Unlike other monetary theories, New Monetarism studies the effects of financial friction on the macroeconomy within the search-match framework. State-owned enterprises usually have low productivity due to their principal-agent problem, thus more currencies （capital） are needed when producing the same number of products. Nevertheless, state-owned enterprises have close political connections with the government, so that they can easily get loans from banks. On the contrary, despite their high productivity, private-owned enterprises suffer more severe fiscal constraints due to their relatively small scales and high risks. Therefore, other things being equal, financial intermediates are more willing to lend money to state-owned enterprises. In the meantime, state-owned enterprises prefer to relend the money to private-owned enterprises because of the relatively higher productivity of the latter. Therefore, the resulting financial friction is the key to understanding the strange monetary phenomenon in China. When there is a weak financial friction, the returns on the relent money to private-owned enterprises are higher than those used by state-owned enterprises. Thus state-owned enterprises would increase their profit margins by lending the money to private-owned enterprises. As a consequence, PPI is likely to increase when the lending ratio increases. When there is a large financial friction, it is more profitable for state-owned enterprises to operate by themselves, rather than investing in private-

关 键 词：货币超发 通货紧缩 新货币主义 金融摩擦 货币政策 

分 类 号：F822[经济管理—财政学]