基于CA-Markov模型的农村建设用地整治时空布局研究——以淮安市洪泽县为例  

Study on spatio-temporal distribution of rural construction land consolidation based on Ca-Markov model——Based on Hongze County Huai'an City

作　　者：马威[1] 

机构地区：[1]南京农业大学公共管理学院,江苏南京210095

出　　处：《农业科学研究》2017年第3期38-42,共5页Journal of Agricultural Sciences

摘　　要：基于农村建设用地数量和空间上的失控现象,本文选取经济欠发达的江苏省苏北地区淮安市洪泽县为研究区,结合洪泽县土地利用总体规划和建设用地"双减量"试点工作计划的实情,将洪泽县2005、2010和2015年三期现状数据作为研究基础数据,辅以研究区社会经济基础数据,借助Arc GIS和IDRISI软件的数据分析,以CAMarkov模型模拟预测洪泽县建设用地2020年和2025年两个未来时间点的时空变化情况,通过地类转化规则(适宜性图集)的调整,实现了情景I和情景II的不同模拟效果,在不同约束条件下生成了差异较大的研究结果.验证了规划对于农村建设用地的切实控制效果,通过对比分析提高研究的准确度,有助于研究准确发现土地利用类型转换影响因素的作用机理,并结合研究区农村建设用地整治适宜性评价成果,为洪泽县的农村建设用地整治工作提供时序安排的建议和意见.At present, under the background of urban construction land is expanding, and the cultivated land resources in rural areas are constantly being expropriated by construction land. Based on this background, this study selected Hongze County,Huai＇an City, Jiangsu Province, based on the actual situation of the ＂double reduction＂ pilot scheme of land use planning and construction land in Hongze County, select 2005, 2010 and 2015 as the basic data of the study, supplemented by the socioeconomic data and planning documents of the study area, the CA-Markov model was used to simulate the construction land of Hongze County in 2020 and 2025 future time points of the amount and space changes by means of the data analysis of Arc GIS and IDRISI software, combined with the study area of rural construction land consolidation suitability evaluation results for the Hongze County rural construction land consolidation work to provide the timing of the recommendations and comments.

关 键 词：CA-Markov 农村建设用地 整治 时空布局 

分 类 号：F301.2[经济管理—产业经济]