后危机时期的中国工业部门产能过剩测度——基于数据包络分析法  

China's Industrial Sector Overcapacity in the Post-crisis Period——Based on Data Envelopment Analysis

作　　者：毛培[1] 刘沛罡 赵金龙 

机构地区：[1]中央财经大学经济学院,北京100081 [2]中央财经大学商学院,北京100081

出　　处：《工业技术经济》2017年第11期96-103,共8页Journal of Industrial Technological Economics

基　　金：教育部哲学社会科学研究重大课题攻关项目"中国经济发展新常态的内涵;特征及其演变逻辑研究"(项目编号:15JZD0011)

摘　　要：目前理论界对"后危机时期"尚无定论,本文特指2008年国际金融危机爆发以来这一时期。文章结合数据包络分析和系统GMM模型分析了2008~2015年我国工业部门的产能过剩情况及主要影响因素,结果发现:这一时期我国工业部门的平均产能利用率约在69.57~73.09%左右,其中制造业部门的产能利用程度优于采矿业和电力、热水、燃气及水的生产和供应业;与一些发达经济体相比仍存在不小差距,相比德国2015年制造业产能利用率84.35%的水平,我国只有72.46%;需求因素与产能利用率显著正相关,现期汇率因素、企业数量因素与产能利用率显著负相关,经济发展程度、行业开放度和固定资产投资因素不显著。The current theoretical circles on the ＂post-crisis period＂ is inconclusive,this article refers to the 2008 international financial crisis since the outbreak of this period. This paper analyzes the overcapacity and the main influencing factors of industrial sector in China from 2008 to 2015 by means of data envelopment analysis and system GMM model. The results show that the average utilization rate of industrial sector in China is about 69.57-73.09%. The capacity of the manufacturing sector is better than the mining industry and the production and supply of electricity,hot water,gas and water; there is still a small gap compared with some developed economies,compared to Germany＇s manufacturing capacity utilization rate of 84.35% in 2015,China＇s current level is only 72.46%. Demand factor is positively correlated with capacity utilization. The current exchange rate factor,firm quantity factor and capacity utilization rate are significantly negatively correlated. Economic development degree,industry openness and fixed asset investment factor are not significant.

关 键 词：后危机时期 数据包络分析法 产能利用率 系统GMM模型 产能过剩 

分 类 号：F424.6[经济管理—产业经济]