珠江流域降水干湿时空特征及气候因子影响研究  

Spatio-temporal Variations of Dryness/wetness and Influence from Climate Factors in Pearl River Basin

作　　者：黄翀[1] 张强[2,3,4] 陈晓宏[1] 肖名忠[1] 

机构地区：[1]中山大学地理科学与规划学院,广东广州510275 [2]北京师范大学环境演变与自然灾害教育部重点实验室,北京100875 [3]北京师范大学地表过程与资源生态国家重点实验室,北京100875 [4]北京师范大学减灾与应急管理研究院,北京100875

出　　处：《水文》2017年第5期12-20,59,共10页Journal of China Hydrology

基　　金：国家杰出青年科学基金项目(51425903);香港特别行政区研究资助局联合资助项目(CUHK441313)

摘　　要：利用模糊C-均值聚类算法、皮尔逊相关和滑动相关分析等方法,对珠江流域做了气候一致性分析,在此基础上,研究了珠江流域不同分区年降水和干湿季降水变化的时空特征,分析了区域干湿变化与厄尔尼诺-南方涛动(ENSO)、北大西洋涛动(NAO)、印度洋偶极子(IOD)和太平洋10年涛动(PDO)等主要气候因子的遥相关关系,探讨了珠江流域干湿变化的气候成因。在此基础上,进一步研究上述气候指标对不同时间尺度干湿变化影响的平稳性与差异性。除此之外,还研究了气候指标的冷暖期对基于6个月SPI值的珠江流域干湿状态的影响。研究表明:(1)IOD、NAO和ENSO分别是导致珠江流域年降水、湿季降水和干季降水发生变化的主要影响因素,且对当年及下一年降水的影响是相反的。(2)珠江流域不同时间尺度的降水与对其有显著影响的气候指标(年降水与IOD,湿季降水与NAO,干季降水与ENSO),两者之间不同时期的滑动相关往往具有较强的相关性和前后相关一致性。(3)各气候指标对珠江流域不同时间尺度降水的影响在空间分布上不太均匀。(4)不同位相下气候指标对珠江流域干湿状态的影响存在较大差异。总体而言,当处于各气候指标暖期时珠江流域出现湿润期的概率较冷期时更大且在空间分布上更均匀。Regionalization of homogeneous climate zones was done using Fuzzy C-Means method. Besides, correlations between dry/wet variations and El Ni？o/Southern Oscillation（ENSO）, North Atlantic Oscillation（NAO）, Indian Ocean Dipole（IOD） and Pacific Decadal Oscillation（PDO） in annual and seasonal time scales were analyzed across the Pearl River Basin using Pearson correlation and moving correlation analysis. Furthermore, stability and diversity of influences of ENSO, NAO, IOD and PDO on annual and seasonal dry/wet variations were also investigated. Moreover, influences of warm and cold phases of climate indices on SPI-based dry and wet regimes in 6-month time scale were studied and the results indicate that：（1） IOD, NAO and ENSO are the main driving factors behind annual, wet and dry seasonal precipitation changes respectively. And the influences of them on the precipitation in the same year and next year are opposite;（2） The moving correlation between precipitation in different time scales and corresponding climate indices（annual precipitation and IOD, wet seasonal precipitation and NAO, dry seasonal precipitation and ENSO） tend to be in strong correlation with good stability;（3） The influences of climate indices on precipitation in different time scales are not uniform in spatial distribution;（4） There are significant differences between influences of warm/cold episodes of climate indices on dry and wet regimes in the Pearl River Basin. Overall, the probability of wet periods occurring in the warm phase of climate indices is greater and more uniformly distributed than that in the cold phase over the Pearl River Basin.

关 键 词：气候指标 滑动相关 SPI 干湿变化 时空特征 珠江流域 

分 类 号：P339[天文地球—水文科学] TV125[水利工程—水文学及水资源]