基于ARDL模型的环境压力影响因素研究——以海峡西岸经济区为例  

Research on Influencing factor of ARDL Model-based Environment Pressure: A Case Study of Western Taiwan Straits Economic Zone

作　　者：林寿富[1,2] 孙吉[1] 苏也夫 LIN SHOUFU;SUN JI;SU YEFU(School of Economics, Fujian Normal University, Fuzhou 350007, China;School of management, University of Science ＆ Technology of China, Hefei 230026, China)

机构地区：[1]福建师范大学经济学院,福建福州350007 [2]中国科学技术大学管理学院,安徽合肥230026

出　　处：《西安电子科技大学学报（社会科学版）》2017年第2期8-15,共8页Journal of Xidian University：Social Science Edition

基　　金：国家社会科学基金项目(16CJL020)

摘　　要：本文以人均环境压力为环境指标,考虑经济增长、工业化、城镇化、对外贸易、科学技术水平对环境的共同影响,建立了更具统计优势的ARDL模型实证分析各因素对海峡西岸经济区环境压力的影响。研究结果发现:人均环境压力与各影响因素之间存在长期均衡关系和短期反向调整机制;科学技术水平的迅速提高对降低海西环境压力起到了非常重要的作用,而经济的快速增长是促使环境压力增加的最主要原因;城镇化水平和对外贸易开放程度的提高也对环境压力有一定影响,但工业化水平对环境压力的影响并不显著。Taking per capita environmental pressure as the environmental indicators, this article explores the influences of economic growth, industrialization, urbanization, foreign trade and scientific and technological level on the environment, and establishes a ARDL model which has much more statistical advantage to empirically analyze the influence of various factors on Western Taiwan Straits Economic Zone. The result indicates that there is a long-term equilibrium relationship and short-term reverse adjustment mechanism between the per capita environmental pressure and other influencing factors; the rapid development of sci-tech plays a very important role in reducing Western Taiwan Straits environmental pressure, while the rapid economic growth is the principal cause of the environment pressure increase. Moreover, the increase of urbanization and foreign trade openness degree also exerts some influences on the environment pressure, while the industrialization has no significant influence.

关 键 词：ARDL模型 环境压力 二氧化碳排放 经济增长 

分 类 号：F062.2[经济管理—政治经济学]