什么类型的地震能被预测?  

What kinds of earthquakes can be predicted?

作　　者：杨百存 秦四清[1,2] 薛雷 吴晓娲[3] 张珂 YANG Bai-cun;QIN Si-qing;XUE Lei;WU Xiao-wa;ZHANG Ke(Key Laboratory of Shale Gas and Geoengineering, Institute of Geology and Geophysics, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100029, China;University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100049, China;Key Laboratory of Urban Security and Disaster Engineering of Ministry of Education, Beijing University of Technology, Beijing 100124, China)

机构地区：[1]中国科学院地质与地球物理研究所中国科学院页岩气与地质工程重点实验室,北京100029 [2]中国科学院大学,北京100049 [3]北京工业大学城市与工程安全减灾省部共建教育部重点试验室,北京100124

出　　处：《地球物理学进展》2017年第5期1953-1960,共8页Progress in Geophysics

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目(41572311;41302233)资助

摘　　要：每当一次严重破坏性地震发生后,关于其能否被预测一直是备受争议的话题.本文基于孕震断层多锁固段脆性破裂理论,分析了能被预测的地震类型,指出:(1)在特定地震区地震目录完整且准确的情况下,除第1锁固段在体积膨胀点发生的标志性地震不能被预测外,后续标志性地震均能被预测;(2)利用次级锁固段破裂在"时间域"或"空间域"的自相似模式,可预测某些标志性预震.本文的研究结果表明,特定地震区内某些标志性地震与标志性预震,因其发生的物理机制明确且有规律可循,故能被预测;这些可预测地震仅与锁固段破裂对应的地震事件类型有关,而与其地震震级无关.Whenever a severely destructive earthquake occurs,whether it can be predicted is always a controversial topic. Based on the theory about the brittle failures of multiple locked patches in a seismogenic fault system,the types of earthquakes which can be predicted are analyzed. In the case of complete and accurate earthquake catalogue,the characteristic earthquakes in a defined seismic zone can be predicted,except one occurred at the volume expansion point of the first locked patch. By means of the ＂time domain＂ or ＂spatial domain ＂ self-similar pattern in the failure process of secondary-order locked patches, some characteristic preshocks can also be predicted. The present results show that the occurrence of some characteristic earthquakes and preshocks in a defined seismic zone, which can be predicted, follows a deterministic law,and that these predictable earthquakes are only related to the types of earthquakes resulting from failures of locked patches,but irrelevant to their magnitude values.

关 键 词：标志性地震 标志性预震 锁固段 次级锁固段 可预测性 

分 类 号：P315[天文地球—地震学]