结构性资产泡沫的统计监测与预警  

Statistical Monitoring and Early Warning of Structural Asset Bubbles

作　　者：李腊生[1] 陈志芳 魏杏梅 Li Lasheng Chen Zhifang Wei Xingmei

机构地区：[1]天津财经大学中国经济统计研究中心 [2]内蒙古财经大学统计与数学学院 [3]天津财经大学

出　　处：《统计研究》2017年第10期42-53,共12页Statistical Research

基　　金：国家社会科学基金项目"基于我国居民家庭资产选择偏好的资产价格体系及其统计监测研究"(15BTJ002);全国统计科学研究项目"我国证券市场并购重组指数的编制与股价泡沫的统计监测"(2015LY49)资助

摘　　要：本文根据实体经济与虚拟经济产品属性上的差异,结合现行的信用货币制度与资本的本质特征,从理论上论证了货币超发背景下资产泡沫的结构性特征以及结构性资产泡沫的形成机理与累积效应,利用相应的统计分析技术构建了结构性资产泡沫的统计监测体系与预警模型。在此基础上,以房产与股票资产为例,选择上海市二手房市场价格指数与上证综合指数及其相关数据为样本,对理论分析结果进行了实证检验,并依据实证分析的结果对当前我国股票资产与上海房产的结构性泡沫进行了预警分析。最后,针对当前我国结构性资产泡沫中的突出问题,提出了相应的政策建议。According to the difference between the real economy and the virtual economic,also combining the current credit system and the essential characteristics of capital,the structural characteristics of asset bubbles,the formation mechanism and accumulation effect are demonstrated theoretically in the context of monetary excess. At the same time,the statistical monitoring system and early warning model of structural asset bubbles are constructed by using the corresponding statistical analysis techniques. On this basis,as an example of the real estate and stock assets,Shanghai second-hand housing market price index and Shanghai Composite Index as sample,makes an empirical test on the results of theoretical analysis. On the basis of the results of the empirical analysis on China‘s current stock assets and Shanghai ＇s real estate,the model of statistical monitoring and early warning has been analyzed. Finally,in view of the outstanding problems in the current structural asset bubbles in China,the corresponding policy recommendations are put forward.

关 键 词：结构性资产泡沫 货币超发 泡沫经济生成机理 统计监测体系 

分 类 号：C812[社会学—统计学]