货币供给冲击、粮食价格与农民收入互动关系研究  

Study on Interaction between Money Supply Shock,Grain Prices and Farmers' Income

作　　者：包许航 BAO Xu - hang(School of Economics and Management, Beijing Jiaotong University, Beijing 100044)

机构地区：[1]北京交通大学经济管理学院,北京100044

出　　处：《商学研究》2017年第5期26-32,共7页Commercial Science Research

摘　　要：利用1990年至2014年中国的相关宏观数据,运用VAR模型分析了中国货币供给冲击、粮食价格与农民收入的互动关系。研究结果表明:(1)货币供给对粮食价格的作用显著,但对农民收入的影响不大,粮食价格对农民收入的影响显著,农民收入对粮食价格有一定的作用,但不显著;(2)在长期,粮食价格、货币供给和农民收入的相互作用均是呈现出逐渐收敛的周期性变化特征,周期约为12年,粮食价格在短期内正向效应明显,但从总体看货币供给的冲击对三个变量影响幅最大;(3)各变量变动方差的解释构成变化主要集中在短期,且均是以货币供给变动解释为主,农民收入的变动解释略高于粮食价格。This paper analyzes the interaction among money supply, grain price and farmers＇ income by using VAR model and China macro data from 1990 to 2014. The results show that： ①The effect of money supply on grain price is significant, but the effect on farmers＇ income is not significant, and the effect of grain prices on farmers＇ income is significant, and farmers＇ income has a cer- tain effect on grain price, but not significant; ②In the long run, the interaction among grain price, money supply and farmer＇ s in- come shows a cyclical change characterized by a gradual convergence with the period of about 12 years, and the positive effect of grain price is obvious in the short term, but the impact of money on the three variables is largest on the whole; ③The explanations of each variable variance are mainly concentrated in the short term, and are mainly relevant to the change of money supply, and the explanation of farmers＇ income change is slightly higher than that of the grain price.

关 键 词：货币供给 粮食价格 农民收入 VAR模型 

分 类 号：F323.8[经济管理—产业经济] F326.11