中国转基因玉米生物技术创新及其产业化经济效应研究  

The Study on GM Maize Technology Innovation and Its Dynamic Economic Effect

作　　者：展进涛 邓鹏程 谢锐[1] 

机构地区：[1]湖南大学经济与贸易学院,长沙410082

出　　处：《农业经济问题》2017年第10期18-26,共9页Issues in Agricultural Economy

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目(编号:71303114;71673139;71603129);国家社科重大项目(编号:11&ZD172)和江苏省高校优势学科建设工程资助项目(PAPD)的阶段成果

摘　　要："十二五"期间中国加大R&D投入促进对转基因作物技术的研发创新,利用生物技术确保粮食安全已是中国实施创新驱动型战略的重要组成部分。论文分析了国内外玉米转基因技术创新的基本格局,并以玉米转基因抗虫技术的产业化应用为例测算了中国转基因玉米技术产业化潜在的经济效应。研究结果发现,复合性状的转基因玉米技术成为国内外研发和应用趋势;转基因玉米产业化一定程度上可促进中国国内玉米综合生产能力的快速增长,相关农产品价格下降,产业联系的正向效应显著。本文也认为玉米生物技术的研发要从产业需求和国家粮食安全需求两个视角最大化转基因生物技术的科研投资效应,成为我国粮食安全可持续发展的新增长点。The adoption of biotechnology to ensure food security is an important part of implementing the innovation-driving strategy.This paper qualitatively discusses the possibility of industrialization of genetically modified(GM)maize in China from the perspectives of the innovation situation of GM maize,and fatherly estimates the dynamic impact of the GM maize industrialization on Chinese agricultural economy by CGE model taking BT maize as an example.The result indicates that transgenic maize with multitraits has become the trend of international research and application for biotechnological maize.In addition,the GM maize industrialization would promote the productivity of the maize,agricultural factor of production flowing and reallocating among different crops in China,with the demand of maize continuing to increase these years in China's domestic market,and potential for yield stopping growing.In addition,there is suited research capacity and policy to guarantee the GM maize industrialization.Otherwise,GM maize industrialization would decrease the price of agricultural products with corn as ingredients,and the higher level of the industrialization,the more advantage of Chinese maize industries than other countries.This paper argues that the promotion of the industrialization of China's GM maize industry should be a strategy for the development of dual force driven development strategy under the guidance of safety supervision and resource constraints.These results will be of great significance to the application of GM Maize and the mechanism innovation in China.

关 键 词：转基因玉米 技术创新 CGE模型 粮食安全 风险交流 

分 类 号：F326.11[经济管理—产业经济] S513[农业科学—作物学]