“一带”背景下中国对中亚五国农产品出口增长的波动分析  

Fluctuation Analysis on China's Agricultural Export Growth to Five Central-Asian Countries Under ‘One Belt'Background

作　　者：朱晶[1,2] 徐志远 李天祥[1] 

机构地区：[1]南京农业大学经济管理学院,江苏南京210095 [2]南京农业大学中国粮食安全研究中心,江苏南京210095

出　　处：《南京农业大学学报（社会科学版）》2017年第5期111-120,共10页Journal of Nanjing Agricultural University(Social Sciences Edition)

基　　金：国家社会科学基金重大项目"完善国家粮食安全保障体系"(14ZDA038)

摘　　要：本文利用un comtrade数据库2003—2014年中国对中亚五国HS6位目农产品出口数据,将二元边际与贸易持续时间纳入同一分析框架,探讨中国对中亚五国农产品出口增长的波动问题。研究发现:首先,中国对中亚五国农产品出口增长较不稳定,而这种不稳定性主要源自出口增长的集约边际部分。其次,出口持续时间较短是导致出口增长波动的主要原因,中国对中亚五国出口持续时间均值和中位值仅为5年和3年左右。最后,提高出口持续时间或降低出口产品退出风险率,会在降低出口增长波动的同时实现增长层次的提高;若仅推动每一产品的出口数量的增加,那么虽然使出口层次提高,却会带来更加剧烈的波动。因此相比对集约边际或扩展边际的单方面强调,政府更应注重推动出口风险率的下降,在此基础上保障出口风险率的平稳,这将是未来推动中国对中亚五国农产品出口长期稳定增长的政策方向。Using the UN Comtrade Data set to extract China's HS six-digit agricultural product exports to five Central-Asian countries from 2003 to 2014,and linking the dual marginal and trade duration,this paper studied the growth fluctuation of agricultural product exported to the five Central-Asian countries.The study found that,first of all,China's agricultural exported to the five Central-Asian countries were less stable,and the instability was mainly caused by the marginal growth of export growth.Second,the short duration was the main reason leading to export growth fluctuations,and the average and median durations were only five years and 3 years for China's exports to the five Central-Asian countries.Finally,increasing the export duration or reducing the exit risk of export products would increase the growth level while reducing export growth fluctuations;if only the value of each product was promoted,it would cause more intense fluctuations though the export level was improved.Therefore,compared to the previous promoting policies which simply emphasize the intensive marginal or the extensive marginal,governments should focus more on driving down the rate of risks for export,and further guarantee its stability,This will be the future policy direction to promote China's agricultural export growth to the five Central-Asian countries for long-term stability.

关 键 词：中亚五国 农产品出口 贸易持续时间 二元边际 出口波动 

分 类 号：F746.12[经济管理—国际贸易]