圆形分布法分析北京市细菌性痢疾发病季节变化  

Seasonal variations of bacillary dysentery in Beijing with round distribution

作　　者：田祎[1] 钱海坤[1] 贾蕾[1] 吕冰[1] 曲梅[1] 张新[1] 黄瑛[1] 王全意[1] 

机构地区：[1]北京市疾病预防控制中心/北京市预防医学研究中心,北京100013

出　　处：《现代预防医学》2017年第21期3853-3855,共3页Modern Preventive Medicine

摘　　要：目的分析2012-2016年北京市细菌性痢疾发病的季节性规律,为有针对性地防控细菌性痢疾提供依据。方法收集《中国传染病监测报告信息系统》中2012-2016年北京市细菌性痢疾的月发病数,采用圆形分布法进行季节性分布分析,确定每年高峰日和高峰期,并采用Watson-William检验法比较各年高峰日是否相同。结果 2012-2016年北京市细菌性痢疾发病存在季节性(M=0.49),且流行趋势基本相同。高峰集中在夏秋季,每年均存在高峰日和高峰期(P<0.05),但各年的高峰日不全相同(F=124.95,P<0.05)。结论北京市细菌性痢疾发病存在季节性,每年的5月至10月为该病的流行高峰,应在此时间段采取有效的预防措施,降低发病率,减少疾病负担。Objective To analyze the seasonal variations of bacillary dysentery in Beijing from 2012 to 2016,and to provide the basis for the targeted prevention and control of bacillary dysentery. Methods The monthly cases of bacillary dysentery in Beijing during 2012 to 2016 were collected from Chinese infectious disease detection report information system. Method of round distribution was adopted to analyze the seasonal distribution and to determine the annual peak days. The Watson-William test was used to compare the difference among the peak days in each year. Results The morbidity of bacillary dysentery in Beijing from 2012 to 2016 had seasonal characteristics（ M = 0. 49） and shared the same trends. The peak periods were summer and autumn. There were peak days and peak period every year（ P 0. 05）,but the peak days were not all the same at each year（ F = 124. 95,P 0. 05）. Conclusion The morbidity of bacillary dysentery had seasonal characteristics with a peak period from May to October every year. Effective preventive measures should be taken during this period to reduce the morbidity and disease burden of bacillary dysentery.

关 键 词：圆形分布法 细菌性痢疾 季节性分布 

分 类 号：R195[医药卫生—卫生统计学]