生态因素下森林生物质动态潜力研究  

Research on the Potential of Forest Biomass Based on Ecological Factors

作　　者：蒲刚清 刘贞[2] 汪毅霖[3] 

机构地区：[1]重庆房地产职业学院营销系,重庆401331 [2]重庆理工大学管理学院,重庆400054 [3]西南政法大学经济学院,重庆401120

出　　处：《重庆理工大学学报（社会科学）》2017年第10期51-59,共9页Journal of Chongqing University of Technology（Social Science）

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目"可再生能源总量目标分配机制及其有效性检验"(71073095);国家自然科学基金项目"能源安全和生态环境约束下区域农业生物质能经济总量模型与补偿机制研究"(71573026);重庆理工大学研究生创新项目"基于生态均衡的森林生物质能可利用潜力分析与市场激励机制实验研究"(YCX2015240)

摘　　要：2050年生物质能将占人类总能源消耗的50%以上,其开发与利用成为解决能源危机及实现可再生能源总量分配目标的关键。考虑林业结构、采伐剩余物是否保留及地力发展等因素,设计11种情景对其潜力进行探究;分析不同因素的影响效度,提出相关林业建设和产业发展建议。考虑采集、运输及存储等技术水平,探究产业原料实际供给情况。生态结构调整的逆向作用较小,而采伐剩余物保留的较大。地力水平提升可显著提高我国生物质可利用潜力。考虑生态因素,2020、2030和2050年的森林生物质潜力分别为32 806.92万吨~36 880.68万吨、38 730.14万吨~45 922.51万吨和41 793.57万吨~50 862.63万吨,分别是传统理论值的1.04~1.17倍、1.16~1.38倍和1.13~1.37倍。考虑技术水平时,其潜力是传统理论值的72.41%、81.32%和81.03%。More than 50% energy consumption will stem from biomass energy in 2050. The exploitation and utilization of biomass is the key to deal with energy crisis and achieve renewable energy target distribution. There are totally 11 simulation scenarios, considering the factors ＇influences,including land capacity,surplus＇ management method and forest structure,evaluating the potential of forest biomass energy properly. From the scenarios＇ results,which are affected by one factor,we can provide some suggestions about forestry construction and development of biomass energy industry. Meanwhile,we can evaluate the actual supply for industry raw material from forest biomass.Ecological structure is a negative factor for biomass potential,but the influence is also negative. The surplus＇ management is negative,but the influence is positive. Improving the land capacity level is a positive method for biomass potential. There are 328. 069 2 million tons-368. 806 8 million tons of forest biomass in 2020,387. 301 4 million tons-459. 225 1 million tons of forest biomass in 2030,and 417. 935 7 million tons-508. 626 3 million of forest biomass tons in 2050. Compared to the theory method,the ecological scenarios results is 1. 04 ~ 1. 17 times,1. 16 ~ 1. 38 times and 1. 13 ~1. 37 times the potential in theory method. And they are 72. 41%,81. 32% and 81. 03% of theory potential,considering the technical level.

关 键 词：生物质 森林生物质 生物质能 地力水平 林种结构 

分 类 号：F307.2[经济管理—产业经济] TK1-8[动力工程及工程热物理—热能工程]