东北地区产业升级路径依赖研究——基于比较优势演化视角  

The Study of Industrial Upgrading Path Dependency in Northeast China:Based on Evolution of Comparative Advantage

作　　者：刘晓静[1,2] 李春艳 陈艺毛[1] 杨文爽 

机构地区：[1]东北师范大学商学院,吉林长春130117 [2]长春中医药大学管理学院,吉林长春130117 [3]长春师范大学研究生院,吉林长春130032

出　　处：《经济问题》2017年第11期11-19,共9页On Economic Problems

基　　金：吉林省教育厅项目"基于市场化进程的吉林省产业技术创新能力培育研究";吉林省教育厅项目"东北地区制造业全要素生产率增长率分解研究";长春中医药大学"百青计划"项目;吉林省科技厅项目"传统优势产业依靠创新驱动转型升级的路径选择及政策研究"

摘　　要：多年来产业升级路径依赖问题的讨论一直存在遵循比较优势的"渐进式产业升级路径"还是偏离比较优势的"创新式产业升级路径"的争议,基于产业空间结构,可视化东北地区2005-2015年产业升级路径,并实证检验东北地区产业升级路径依赖。"十一五"期间,东北地区产业升级路径遵循比较优势,承接沿海地区产业转移的规模不断扩大,显性比较优势产业数量逐步增多,产业升级成功比例较高;进入"十二五"时期后,产业升级路径开始偏离比较优势,承接沿海地区产业转移的规模没有进一步扩大,显性比较优势产业数量没有进一步增加,产业升级成功比例减少;整体上,东北地区产业升级路径遵循比较优势,并且比较优势在产业升级过程中发挥的引领产业创新发展的作用高于阻止产业失势的作用,东北地区应在遵循比较优势的基础上进行创新型产业升级,盲目向高技术产业转型升级往往会造成东北地区产业升级断档进而陷入产业升级陷阱之中。There is a debt about industrial upgrading to conform,choosing ＂Incremental industrial upgrade path＂,or deviate from comparative advantage,choosing ＂Innovative industrial upgrading paths＂,for long time.Basing on Product Space,this paper virtualizes industrial upgrading path from 2005-2015 in Northeast China and analyze empirical result.During the Eleventh Five-Year Plan,Northeast Region industrial upgrading follows its comparative advantage and the scale of industrial transfer from coastal areas is expanding,meanwhile,the possibility of upgrading successfully is high,comparing to Twelfth Five-Year Plan period,during which industrial upgrading departs from local comparative advantage.In whole,Northeast China conform the comparative advantage upgrading path.Distinguishing comparative advantage between the factors determining the probability of upgrading from the determinants of abandoning current advantage industries,comparative advantage works more on leading upgrading than impeding existed industries of discarding.Northeast China should embed innovation in the content of comparative advantage,eager for transformation of high-tech industries blindly will often result in industrial upgrading falling into an industrial upgrading trap.

关 键 词：东北地区 比较优势 产业升级 路径依赖 

分 类 号：F061.5[经济管理—政治经济学]