1955-2014年三峡库区降水特征分析——以重庆市万州区为例  

An Analysis of the Characteristics of Precipitation in the Three Gorges Reservoir Area from 1955 to 2014——A Case Study of Wanzhou in Chongqing

作　　者：周小英 谢世友[1,2] 任伟[1] ZHOU Xiao-ying XIE Shi-you REN Wei(School of Geography Sciences, Southwest University, Chongqing 400715, China Key Laboratory of Three-Gorges Reservoir Region＇s Eco-Environment of the Ministry of Education, Southwest University, Chongqing 400715, China)

机构地区：[1]西南大学地理科学学院,重庆400715 [2]西南大学三峡库区生态环境教育部重点实验室,重庆400715

出　　处：《西南大学学报（自然科学版）》2017年第10期102-108,共7页Journal of Southwest University(Natural Science Edition)

基　　金：国家科技支撑计划项目(2011BAC09B01;2006BAC01A16);重庆市自然科学基金重点项目(CSTC2009BA0002);中央高校基本业务费专项基金项目(XDJK2015C006;SWU114058)

摘　　要：利用重庆市万州区1955-2014年的月降水数据,选择线性回归分析、Morlet小波分析和R/S分析方法对三峡库区降水的年际和年代际变化、多时间尺度变化和降水趋势变化特征进行分析.研究表明:近60年三峡库区降水变化总体上呈现出微弱的线性减少趋势,年际和年代际波动较大,各年代降水存在"少-多-少"的变化趋势;三峡库区年降水存在多时间尺度的周期变化,主要有25,16和8年时间尺度的变化,尺度越小则降水变化平均周期越短;此外,由Hurst指数分析结果得出,未来一段时间内,三峡库区的年降水量将会进入相对偏多阶段.Linear regression analysis,Morlet wavelet analysis and R/Sanalysis were made of the monthly precipitation data from 1955 to 2014recorded at Wanzhou National Meteorological Station in Chongqing to study the inter-annual and inter-decade variation,multiple time scale fluctuation and variation trend of precipitation in the Three Gorges Reservoir Area.The results indicated that in the past sixty years the precipitation in Three Gorges Reservoir Area,as a whole,presented a slight linear decreasing trend,with fairly obvious inter-annual and inter-decade variations.Precipitation tended to fluctuste in a ＂scarce-abundantscarce＂pattern within a decade.The periodic variation of annual precipitation had multiple time scales,which mainly fluctuated with the time scales of 25 a,16a and 8a.The smaller the time scale,the shorter the average period of precipitation variation.It is predicted according to the Hurst index that the annual precipitation in Three Gorges Reservoir Area will increase relatively in the next period.

关 键 词：降水 小波分析 年际变化 年代际变化 多时间尺度 

分 类 号：P467[天文地球—大气科学及气象学]