农村土地“增值”对农民市民化实现的贡献研究  

Measuring Contribution of Rural Land Value Increment to Famers' Urbanization

作　　者：彭建超[1] 吴群[1] 钱畅 PENGJianchao WUQun QIANChang(CollegeofPublicAdministration, NanjingAgriculturalUniversity, NanjingJiangsu, 210095, China JiangsuLandSurveyingandPlanningInstitute, NanjingJiangsu, 210024, China)

机构地区：[1]南京农业大学公共管理学院,江苏南京210095 [2]江苏省土地勘测规划院,江苏南京210024

出　　处：《人口学刊》2017年第6期51-61,共11页Population Journal

基　　金：国家自然科学基金青年项目:新型城镇化进程中农村土地利用与居民地域认知相关性研究(71403129);国家自然科学基金(重点)项目:我国土地资源效率提升能力与系统建设研究--基于转变经济发展方式的视角(71233004);教育部人文社会科学研究青年基金项目:发达地区农村土地综合整治对地域性认同的影响研究(13YJC630117);南京农业大学中央高校基本科研业务费人文社科基金:离地农民市民化进程中的地域性认同演化机理研究(SK2015008)

摘　　要：农村土地的增值及其与农民市民化的关系已成为新型城镇化过程中各界关注的焦点,研究结合实地调研数据测算农村土地增值对农民市民化均衡实现的贡献,通过调查江苏省7市126个村的耕地、宅基地和集体经营性建设用地等三大地类的价值现状及区域差异,在拓展托达罗人口迁移模型的基础上,测算农村土地价值变化对江苏农民市民化均衡实现的影响。结果显示耕地经营价值如果从传统粮食生产型增长为高收益型,江苏农民市民化均衡实现需要向城镇转移的农村人口占现农村总人口的比例可从90%降到56%,而耕地人均适度经营规模可从23.3亩降为5.7亩;三大地类的财产性价值每增长1 000元/人·年,可分化转移农民3%的城镇失业风险;此外,每1万农民市民化需占用耕地约502亩,而城镇土地节约集约利用水平每提高10%可降低约0.5%的耕地占用。优化情景模拟建议,江苏实现农民市民化均衡需保障农村人均经营耕地9.4亩,转移73.9%的农村人口。结论表明农村土地增值对农民市民化均衡的实现具有重要贡献,农地经营性和财产性收益的增加、城镇用地节约集约利用水平的提升可显著降低农村转移人口规模、耕地占用数量,并抵御农村转移人口的失业风险,进而降低城镇化进程的成本,但促进农村土地增值与农民市民化的实现还需解决诸多难题。This study is to measure the contribution of rural land value transit to famers＇ urbanization.Field survey data is used. The founding of this work is expected to provide policy-making reference for the government to carry out reasonable reform on rural land system and boost farmers＇ urbanization at a right pace. Methods employed include field investigation and Todaro model. Based on the value data of arable land,residential land and collective commercial land from 126 villages of 7 cities of Jiangsu Province,the study analyzes the composition and geographical differences of rural land value. Todaro model with the integration of rural land value is built to simulate the scenarios when Jiangsu achieves farmers＇ urbanization balance. Results show that if farming is set to a moderate scale on arable land and farming income obtained shifts from grain production to higher-value produce way,the desired transfer of the rural population can be reduced to 56% from 90% for Jiangsu to achieve steady urbanization. Moderate farming arable land per capita will drop to 0.38 ha from 1.55 ha. Every property value increase of 1,000 yuan per capita a year in rural land can offset 3% risk of urban unemployment for transferred farmers. Moreover,each transfer of 10,000 farmers to cities needs 33.47 ha arable land lost to urban sprawl. 0.5% of the arable land occupied can be saved if the level of urban land intensive utilization increases 10%. If an optimal steady urbanization scenario is to realize in Jiangsu,the moderate farming arable land per capita needs 0.63 ha,along with 73.9% of rural population migrate to cities. Urbanization rate of Jiangsu may reach 91% in the end. Conclusions indicate that the rural land value transit has great contribution to famers＇ urbanization. Increase of farming and property values of rural land,as well as promotion of urban land intensive utilization can significantly reduce the size of rural population transferred and the amount of arable land occupied. Farmers migrated to cities can benefits

关 键 词：农村土地 价值 农民市民化 托达罗模型 江苏省 

分 类 号：C922[社会学—人口学]