农村老人自理能力、服务需求与家庭贫困关联度分析  

Correlation Analysis of Rural Elderly Self-care Ability,Service Demand and Family Poverty

作　　者：刘欢[1] LIUHuan(CenterforSocialSecurityStudies, WuhanUniversity, HubeiWuhan, 430072, Chin)

机构地区：[1]武汉大学社会保障研究中心,湖北武汉430072

出　　处：《人口学刊》2017年第6期71-80,共10页Population Journal

基　　金：教育部人文社会科学重点研究基地重大项目:人口老龄化与养老服务体系建设研究(16JJD840009);教育部人文社会科学重点研究基地重大项目:中国扶贫战略研究(16JJD840007)

摘　　要：伴随人口老龄化加速和养老模式的变迁,农村人口养老问题越来越成为学术界关注的重要议题。农村老龄人口在养老上不仅面临较大的经济压力,同时由于成年劳动力的外流,在养老服务上也面临着供给不足。农村老龄贫困家庭尤为值得关注,老龄人口的自理能力是否会对家庭贫困产生影响?家庭贫困与老人自理能力及服务需求存在什么样的关系?这些问题都急需解决,基于此,文章以精准识别家庭贫困成因为思路,以老龄化为视角,探析农村老龄人口自理能力、服务需求与家庭贫困三个变量之间的关联性。具体方法是基于CHNS数据库1989~2011年9次调查面板数据,通过建立联立方程模型分别对各个假设进行面板Logit回归估计检验。检验结果表明,农村老人自理能力与服务需求显著正相关,与低收入家庭、家庭规模呈现显著负相关;老人服务需求与家庭收入、生活质量呈显著负相关,自理能力对服务需求有显著的正向作用;服务需求满足程度、个人收入与医疗保险对老年家庭贫困有显著的负向作用,自理能力对农村老人家庭贫困影响并不显著。进一步的研究发现非老人家庭中自理能力、服务需求与家庭贫困也有显著的关联性。因此,自理能力、服务需求与家庭贫困存在显著的相关性,针对农村老年贫困家庭,应优先满足其经济和健康需求,从而为精准识别老年贫困和精准帮扶贫困家庭提供支持,在此基础上,逐步改善农村老龄人口养老服务状况,提升其生活质量。With the rapid aging of the population and the changing patterns of the old-age pension,the problem of old-age population in rural areas has become an important topic of academic concern. Rural population is not only facing a large pension economic pressure,and because of the outflow of rural adult labor,rural elderly population in the pension service is also facing inadequate supply. Especially for rural poor families,the elderly population self-care ability will have an impact on family poverty？ What is the relationship between family poverty and the self-care ability and service needs of the elderly？ These problems are urgently needed to solve,based on this,in this paper,the precise identification of family poverty as a way of thinking,aging from the perspective of rural elderly self-care ability,service needs and family poverty,the relationship between the three variables. The specific method is 9 1989-2011 panel data survey database based on CHNS,by establishing a simultaneous equation model of each hypothesis were panel logit regression,the regression results show that the rural elderly self-care ability and service demand was positively correlated with low income families,family size has a significant negative correlation;service demand of the elderly and family the income and quality of life was significantly negatively related to selfcare ability has a significant positive effect on the demand for services;service demand satisfaction,personal income and medical insurance has a significant negative effect on elderly family poverty,self-care ability is not significant for the elderly family in rural poverty;further study found that non elderly family self-care ability,demand with the service of poor families also have significant relevance. Therefore,this paper argues that self-care ability,service demand and poor families have significant correlation,for the elderly poor families,should give priority to meet their economic and health needs,so as to accurately identify the elderly poverty and precision

关 键 词：农村 老人 贫困 自理能力 服务需求 

分 类 号：C913.6[经济管理]