基于GM(1,1)模型的株洲市经济发展水平预测  

Study on the economic development prediction of Zhuzhou city based on the GM(1,1) model

作　　者：陈婉铃[1] 张坤[1] 

机构地区：[1]湖南农业大学资源环境学院,湖南长沙410128

出　　处：《上海国土资源》2017年第4期42-45,共4页Shanghai Land & Resources

基　　金：湖南省社科基金项目"长株潭政府合作与区域经济协调发展研究"(15YBA191)

摘　　要：通过经济结构和经济总量两个方面构建表征区域经济发展水平的指标体系,基于GM(1,1)模型,对株洲市2017~2026年各项经济指标进行预测。研究结果表明:未来十年株洲市经济发展水平总体呈现稳步提升的趋势,经济结构小幅度优化,经济总量在2020年后增长幅度有较大的提升。同时根据预测结果,GM(1,1)模型精度较高,能够较好地拟合区域经济发展的状态。Constructing one index system of the regional economic development level was achieved through two aspects： the economic structure and the total size of the economy. Based on the GM（1,1） model, we predicted the economic indicators of Zhuzhou for 2017-2026. The results show that： in the next ten years, the overall economic development in Zhuzhou will exhibit a steady upward trend, the economic structure will be optimized by a small margin, and the economic growth rate will be greatly increased after 2020. At the same time, according to the prediction results, the GM（1,1） model has high accuracy, and can better ft the state of regional economic development.

关 键 词：城市经济管理 经济结构分析 发展水平预测 灰色模型 

分 类 号：F292[经济管理—国民经济]