湖南粮食安全中长期预测研究  

Mid-Long Term Forecast of Grain Security of Hunan Province

作　　者：李丹[1] 林中[1] 李亮[1] 

机构地区：[1]湖南省农业信息与工程研究所,湖南长沙410125

出　　处：《湖南农业科学》2017年第10期83-85,共3页Hunan Agricultural Sciences

基　　金：湖南省科技厅政策法规处软科学计划项目(2014ZK3044)

摘　　要：在参考已有研究成果的基础上,以湖南省2000~2015年的人口和粮食产量数据为研究材料,预测了未来10 a湖南省粮食消费、粮食产量的变化情况,再根据预测数据分析了湖南粮食供需缺口及自给率变化情况。结果表明:湖南省未来粮食安全的水平将有可能逐步下降,因此全省仍应加大农业扶持力度,提高生产效率,来满足日益增长的粮食需求,确保未来的粮食安全。This study selects a part of historical data on population and food production from 2000 to 2015 of Hunan Province, on the basis of reference and summary of the existing related research results; forecasts the change of the next 10 years’ grain consumption and grain output in Hunan; and, according to the forecasted data, analyzes the gap between grain supply and demand, and the change of grain self-suffciency rate of Hunan. The results show that grain security level will be likely to decline gradually in the future in Hunan; so the province should still increase agricultural support, and improve production effciency to meet the growing demand for grain and ensure the grain security in the future of Hunan.

关 键 词：湖南粮食安全 预测 回归 自给率 

分 类 号：F326.11[经济管理—产业经济]