基于情景构建技术的应急准备能力评估方法  

Study on assessment method of emergency preparedness capability based on scenario construction technology

作　　者：盛勇[1,2] 

机构地区：[1]中国安全生产科学研究院公共安全研究所,北京100012 [2]重大危险源监控与事故应急技术国家安全监管总局安全生产重点实验室,北京100012

出　　处：《中国安全生产科学技术》2017年第10期43-47,共5页Journal of Safety Science and Technology

基　　金：中国安全生产科学研究院基本科研业务费专项资金项目(2016JBKY02;2017JBKY06)

摘　　要：为了提高应急准备能力评估结果的可靠性,提出一种基于情景构建技术的应急准备能力评估方法。运用情景构建技术,明确所构建的情景事件中的主要应急任务;提出应急准备能力评估指标体系,将完成每项应急任务所需的目标能力和现实能力相比较,采用加权求和的计算方法,评估区域应对该类情景事件的应急准备能力,并进行实例验证。结果表明:评估指标体系结构合理,评估方法可行,可提升应急准备能力评估的针对性,对区域应急准备能力的提高具有指导意义。In order to improve the reliability of assessment results on the emergency preparedness capability,an assessment method of emergency preparedness capability based on scenario construction technology was proposed. Through using the scenario construction technology,the main emergency tasks of the constructed scenario events were defined. An assessment index system of emergency preparedness capability was put forward,and the target capability that required to complete each emergency task was compared with the realistic capability. The calculation method of weighted sum was used to assess the emergency preparedness capability of the region in response to such scenario events,and a case validation was carried out.The results showed that the structure of the assessment index system was reasonable,and the assessment method was feasible.It can enhance the pertinence of emergency preparedness capability assessment,and has guiding significance to improve the regional emergency preparedness capability.

关 键 词：情景构建 应急准备 能力评估 技术方法 

分 类 号：X913[环境科学与工程—安全科学]