区域水资源系统脆弱性评价研究  

Study on Vulnerability Evaluation of Regional Water Resources System

作　　者：周翔南[1] 方洪斌[1] 靖娟[1] 侯保俭[1] 

机构地区：[1]黄河勘测规划设计有限公司,河南郑州450003

出　　处：《人民黄河》2017年第11期47-52,共6页Yellow River

基　　金：国家重点研发计划项目(2017YFC0404404);"十二五"国家科技支撑计划项目(2013BAC10B02)

摘　　要：通过人类活动与水资源、水环境的相互反馈作用,探讨了水资源系统脆弱性的内涵及程度分级,在此基础上建立了基于三层结构的评价指标体系。针对水资源系统脆弱性具有模糊性及相对性的特点,构建了基于循环迭代算法的模糊综合评判模型,从自然禀赋、水资源利用、社会经济三个方面,计算分析客观权重下河南省水资源系统脆弱性时空展布及演变规律。结果表明:河南省各地市水资源系统脆弱性呈现从西南到东北逐步升高的变化规律,其中南阳、信阳水资源脆弱程度较低,而郑州、焦作、安阳水资源系统非常脆弱。Based on the mutual feedback among human activities and water environment,this paper discussed the connotation and degree classification of water system vulnerability. On this basis,the evaluation index system based on three-layer structure was established. Aiming at the characteristics of fuzziness and relativity of water resources system vulnerability,a fuzzy comprehensive evaluation model based on cyclic iterative algorithm had been constructed. From the aspects of natural endowments,water resources utilization and social economy,spatial-temporal distribution and evolution law of regional water resources system was calculated and analyzed under objective weight. The results indicate that there is a gradually increasing trend of the water resources vulnerability from southwest to northeast in the cities of Henan Province. Among results,Nanyang,Xinyang water resources are less vulnerable,and that of Zhengzhou,Jiaozuo and Anyang are very fragile.

关 键 词：水资源系统脆弱性 评价指标体系 模糊综合评判 循环迭代算法 

分 类 号：TV213.4[水利工程—水文学及水资源]