长江中游农业产业增长与结构贡献——基于Shift-Share模型  

Agricultural Industry Growth and Structure Contribution in the Middle Reaches of the Yangtze River——Based on Shift-Share Model

作　　者：黄玛兰 李晓云[1] 刘念[1] 袁梦烨 Huang Malan Li Xiaoyun Liu Nian Yuan Mengye(College of Economics ＆ Management, Huazhong A gricultural University, Wuhan 430070, Hube)

机构地区：[1]华中农业大学经济管理学院,湖北武汉430070

出　　处：《农业展望》2017年第9期69-75,共7页Agricultural Outlook

基　　金：国家自然科学基金(71673102);中央高校基本科研业务费专项基金资助项目(2662016PY060)

摘　　要：利用1980—2014年的统计数据,以长江经济带为标准区域,运用动态Shift-Share模型分析了长江中游农业产业结构的发展优势与劣势及四省农业总产值增长的差异。结果表明,1980—2014年长江中游农业总产值增长优势高于长江经济带农业总产值平均增长水平。长江中游农业产业结构变化对长江经济带农业发展的影响分为:湖北、湖南农业产业结构偏离<0,竞争力偏离>0;江西农业产业结构偏离>0,竞争力偏离<0;安徽农业产业结构偏离<0,竞争力偏离<0等3种类型。为进一步提高长江经济带农业产业总体发展水平,各省应充分发挥比较优势,引导农业生产合理布局,提高农业资源的配置及利用效率。Using the statistical data from 1980 to 2014,and taking the whole Yangtze River economic zone as the standard area,this study took dynamic Shift-Share model to analyze the advantages and disadvantages of the development of agricultural industrial structure in the middle reaches of the Yangtze River,and to assess the difference of agricultural output value growth at provincial level.Results showed that the growth of total agricultural output value in the middle reaches of the Yangtze River was higher than that of the Yangtze River economic zone from 1980 to 2014.The changes of agricultural industrial structure in the middle reaches of the Yangtze River had exerted some impacts on agricultural development in the Yangtze River economic zone.Firstly,the agricultural industrial structure deviations of Hubei and Hunan were less than zero,and their competitiveness deviations were greater than zero.Secondly,the agricultural industrial structure deviation of Jiangxi was greater than zero,and its competitiveness deviation was less than zero.Thirdly,both the agricultural industrial structure deviation and competitiveness deviation of Anhui were less than zero.To further enhance the overall development level of the agricultural industry in the Yangtze River economic zone,the provinces in the economic zone should give full play to their comparative advantages,guide rational distribution of agricultural production,and improve the allocation and utilization efficiency of agricultural resources.

关 键 词：长江中游 长江经济带 农业产业结构 竞争力与结构优势 Shift-Share模型 

分 类 号：F327[经济管理—产业经济]