全球油气行业近年上游投资变化趋势  

Global upstream investment trends of oil & gas industry

作　　者：肖玉茹[1] 

机构地区：[1]中国石化石油勘探开发研究院

出　　处：《国际石油经济》2017年第10期35-41,共7页International Petroleum Economics

摘　　要：低油价下上游海上项目投资比例上升,陆上项目投资下降;非常规油气投资比例上升,常规油气下降;亚太地区投资上升,拉美略降,北美下降幅度较大。2017年,石油公司投资信心逐步恢复,预计上游投资比上年增加16%,增幅最大的国家为美国。未来几年,国际石油公司现金盈亏平衡油价在50美元/桶左右,油气勘探开发投资将呈增长态势。勘探仍是石油公司发展的首要增长引擎,2018年以后勘探投资将稳步增长,深水项目凭借低成本、高产量已具备较强的竞争力。国际石油公司在投资组合中优选成本低、回报快的石油项目,积极布局影响长远的天然气和LNG资源型项目,减少高成本油砂项目。Under low oil prices, the proportion of investment in offshore E＆P projects has risen, and investment in onshore projects has declined; the proportion of unconventional spending has risen while conventional oil＆ gas spending has decreased; investment in the Asia-Pacific region has increased, but Latin America dropped slightly and North America dropped significantly. In 2017, oil companies’ investment confidence has restored gradually with expected increase in upstream investment by 16% and the largest increase is in the US. In the next few years, international oil companies’ cash break-even oil price will be around $50 per barrel, and investment in oil and gas exploration and development will grow. Exploration is still the primary growth engine for oil companies. After 2018, exploration investment will grow steadily, and deep-water projects would be competitive with their low cost and high yield. As for the business portfolio, international oil companies tend to choose low-cost and fast-return oil projects, actively layout long-term natural gas and LNG resource projects, and reduce high-cost oil sands projects.

关 键 词：低油价 上游投资 深水 天然气 油砂 

分 类 号：F416.22[经济管理—产业经济]