国际政治中的可信承诺:一项学术评估  

A Review of Credible Commitments in International Politics

作　　者：曹德军[1] 

机构地区：[1]北京大学,北京100871

出　　处：《太平洋学报》2017年第10期12-24,共13页Pacific Journal

基　　金：国家社科基金专项工程课题"十八大以来党中央治国理政方略与外交新战略研究"(16ZZD021)的阶段性成果

摘　　要：在无政府状态下,国家如何发出信号、何时做出承诺,以及承诺哪些内容,是一个重要的外交战略问题。纵观学术界对外交承诺问题的研究,存在三种主要的可信承诺研究范式。理性主义的承诺分析包括威慑理论、观众成本理论与战略抵押理论,其核心思路建立在经济学逻辑之上,认为展示清晰并昂贵信号,增加违约成本将有助于增强承诺的可信度。文化建构主义则强调承诺的社会性情境,可信度取决于话语沟通、文化规范与互动实践所塑造的社会形象。社会心理学路径则聚焦于行为体的属性特质,强调微观层次的心理感知、情绪传递与声誉评价机制。既有文献加深了我们对可信承诺机制的理解,但缺乏一个综合性的分析框架。未来研究需要将承诺者与受诺者的互动整合起来,同时关注时空情境对承诺效力的影响。In an anarchic international society, how and when do decision-makers signal credible commitments,and what are their strategic intentions are always important topics in diplomatic studies. A review of relevant literature reveals three main approaches of credible commitment research. Rationalism approach includes deterrence theory, audience cost theory and strategic mortgage theory, which focuses on cost-benefit framework, also underlines that clear and costly signals will help to enhance the credibility of diplomatic commitments. Cultural constructivism, however, emphasizes the social context of commitment,and points out that credibility depends on the social impressions resulted from discourse communication,cultural norms and interactive practice. Whereas, social psychology highlights that subject＇s attributes and psychological dispositions deeply influence mutual trust in social interactions, emphasizing the psychological perception, emotional transmission and reputation evaluation mechanism at the micro-level. On the whole, the existing literature deepens our pluralistic understanding about conditions and logics of signaling diplomatic commitments, while a comprehensive analytic framework is still in need to integrate the signalsenders logic and signal-receivers logic, and we also need to pay more attention to the importance of spatial and temporal factors in credible commitments.

关 键 词：战略确保 昂贵信号 声誉效应 日常政治 

分 类 号：D815.5[政治法律—国际关系]