危机与应对:普京第三任期俄罗斯经济发展  

Crisis and Response: Russia's Economic Development during Putin's Third Term

作　　者：郭晓琼 

机构地区：[1]中俄战略协作高端合作智库办公室 [2]中国社会科学院俄罗斯东欧中亚研究所

出　　处：《东北亚论坛》2017年第6期111-124,共14页Northeast Asia Forum

基　　金：中俄战略协作高端合作智库资金资助项目

摘　　要：普京第三任期以来,俄罗斯经济逐渐从低速增长到陷入危机,此轮俄罗斯经济危机是由外部因素与内生因素共同作用的结果。欧美制裁、国际油价下跌等外部因素固然是将俄罗斯推向危机的重要推手,但真正导致俄罗斯经济陷入危机的深层次原因还是俄罗斯经济内生的结构性问题。本文在分析俄罗斯经济形势的同时,对2008年金融危机与普京第三任期内的经济危机进行了比较。普京第三任期俄罗斯经济发展面临着增长模式、经济结构、创新积极性、投资、人力资本发展等一系列挑战,本文从能源出口收入增加与经济增长之间的内在联动机制入手,指出俄罗斯传统经济增长模式失效的原因。为尽快消除西方制裁和经济危机的负面影响,俄罗斯政府制定并实施了反制裁和反危机政策。从目前的经济形势看,2017年俄罗斯经济止跌回升实现低速增长并非难事,要实现持续、快速、稳定的经济增长还需要大力推进结构改革,发展创新型经济,不断改善营商环境,创造有利于市场经济发展的制度环境,这对俄罗斯而言都是长期而艰巨的任务。Since Putin's third term, the Russian economy has been in economic crisis. This round of Russian economic crisis is the result of the combination of external and endogenous factors. External factors such as economic sanctions against Russia, international oil price drop and other external factors are important drivers of Russia's crisis, but the root causes of the economic crisis in Russia are the structural problems of the Russian economy. In the analysis of the economic situation of Russia, this paper compares the financial crisis of 2008 and the economic crisis during the third term of Putin. In Putin's third term, Russia's economic development faces a series of challenges, such as growth model, economic structure, innovation enthusiasm, investment and human capital development. This paper starts with the internal linkage mechanism between the increase of energy export income and economic growth, and puts forward the reasons for the failure of traditional economic growth model in Russia. The Russian government has formulated and implemented anti-sanctions and anti-crisis policies to remove the negative effects of western sanctions and the economic crisis as soon as possible. Judging from the current economic situation, it is not difficult for the Russian economy to recover in 2017. But in order to achieve sustained, rapid and stable economic growth, it is important to push structural reforms, develop an innovative economy, constantly improve the business environment, and create a systemic environment conducive to the development of market economy. It is a long-term and arduous task for Russia.

关 键 词：俄罗斯 普京第三任期 经济危机 反制裁 反危机 

分 类 号：F151.23[经济管理—世界经济]