燃气管线运行的动态风险评价  

Dynamic Risk Assessment of Gas Pipeline Operation

作　　者：刘克会[1,2] 胡玉生[2] 冉伦 李金林[1] 

机构地区：[1]北京理工大学管理与经济学院,北京100081 [2]北京市新技术应用研究所,北京100012

出　　处：《系统科学与数学》2017年第8期1828-1839,共12页Journal of Systems Science and Mathematical Sciences

基　　金：北京市科学技术研究院创新团队计划(IG201607C1);北京市科学技术研究院青年骨干计划(201721)资助课题;国家自然科学基金(71432002;71172172;71272058;71672011)

摘　　要：针对燃气管线运行的风险状况是随着空间和时间不断变化的情况,在风险评价的基础上,增加一个时间维度,在指标和时间的多维空间中进行燃气管线运行的动态风险评价,利用理想矩阵法建立燃气管线运行动态风险评价的矩阵相近性关联分析模型,通过各待评管段与正负理想矩阵的关联度对各待评管段的运行风险进行排序并给出风险等级.结果表明,该模型计算简便并且能够反映各待评管段运行风险的动态变化.Considering the risk situation＇s change of gas pipeline operation with space and time, this paper adds a time dimension on the basis of risk assessment and makes the dynamic risk assessment of gas pipeline operation in the multidimensional space of index and time. The ideal matrix method is used to establish matrix close incidence analysis model on the dynamic risk assessment of gas pipeline operation. Through degree of incidence between each gas section and the positive and negative ideal matrix, we give the operation risk sequence and the risk grade of each gas section. The result shows that calculation of this assessment model is simple and can reflect the dynamic changes for each pipe section＇s operation risk.

关 键 词：燃气管线 动态风险评价 关联度 正负理想矩降 

分 类 号：TU996[建筑科学—供热、供燃气、通风及空调工程]