中国人力资本经济增长效应的计量研究——基于省际空间面板数据的实证分析  

The Econometric Study on Effects of Chinese Economic Growth of Human Capital:An Empirical Anaysis on Provincial Space Panel Data

作　　者：昌先宇 赵彦云[4] 

机构地区：[1]中国科学院大学经济与管理学院博士后流动站 [2]中国科学院虚拟经济与数据研究中心,北京100190 [3]中国华融资产管理股份有限公司博士后科研工作站,北京100033 [4]中国人民大学统计学院,北京100872

出　　处：《统计与信息论坛》2017年第11期10-20,共11页Journal of Statistics and Information

摘　　要：在当今学术界,人力资本是经济增长的重要动力已是共识,但对于人力资本如何推动经济增长的作用机制仍存在较大争议。基于异质人力资本促进经济增长的作用机制和分类效应的分析,提出理论假说并用全国30个省份的人口统计数据建立空间计量模型,结合中国实际情况,分析得出结论:不是人力资本存量水平越高技术创新作用就越大,而是高级人力资本存量水平越高,其技术创新的作用还会显著影响到其周边区域发挥其创新和模仿的外溢效应,进而提高整个社会的生产效率,从而带来收益递增的持续经济增长。在全国范围内,各大区域之间技术模仿的路径并没有唯一模式,有可能只模仿领先地区,也有可能是多边模仿地区,但不拘泥于趋同或者趋异。因此,要加大人力资本投入,分地区优化人力资本结构比例,促进人力资本积累。同时,应加强地区经济互动,提升人力资本外溢效应,使技术扩散效应发挥更为全面和深远。In academia today,there is consensus that human capital is an important driver of economic growth,but how human capital promotes economic growth mechanism remains controversial.Based on discussion about mechanism and classification of heterogeneous effects of human capital on economic growth,theoretical hypotheses are proposed and spatial econometric models are constructed using demographic data from the country's 30 provinces and autonomous regions.Researches show that:not the higher the level of human capital stock is,the greater the role of technological innovation will make,but the higher the level of high-level human capital stock,the role of technological innovation will make.The technological innovation of high-level human capital stock not only is significant,but also affects its surrounding areas to play its innovation and imitation spillover effect,and then improve the productivity of the whole society,thus increasing the income of the sustained economic growth.There is no single model for the imitation of technology between major provinces and cities across the country.It is possible to imitate only the leading areas and also possible to imitate all the other regions,but not rigidly in convergence or divergence.Therefore,human capital investment should be increased and the proportion of sub-regional human capital structure should be optimized to promote human capital accumulation.At the same time,regional economic interaction should be strengthened to enhance the human capital spillover effect and promote the spread of technology.

关 键 词：人力资本 异质性 外溢效应 面板数据模型 空间面板数据模型 

分 类 号：F064.1[经济管理—政治经济学]