基于灰色-尖点突变的海洋灾害损失预测研究  

Research on Grey-Catastrophe Model on Predicting Loss in Marine Disaster

作　　者：赵黎明[1] 董营 刘嘉玥 

机构地区：[1]天津大学管理与经济学部,天津300072 [2]天津大学海洋科学与技术学院,天津300072

出　　处：《天津大学学报（社会科学版）》2017年第6期503-507,共5页Journal of Tianjin University：Social Sciences

基　　金：国家社会科学重大基金资助项目(13&ZD162);天津市科技发展战略研究计划基金资助项目(16ZLZXZF00630)

摘　　要：文章旨在提供一种合理有效的海洋灾害损失预测模型。将灰色和尖点突变预测模型相结合,构建了海洋灾害损失预测的灰色-尖点突变预测模型,并对中国国家海洋局2005—2014年广东省风暴潮灾害损失8项指标进行预测分析。计算出了突变时间差,将计算结果和原始数据进行对比,得到了较为满意的预测结果,为海洋灾害预防起到指导作用。最后从预警预报、防灾抗灾、应急救援、灾后恢复重建4个方面,为海洋灾害管理提供政策参考并提出了政策建议。This paper aims to provide a rational model for predicting and analyzing the loss in marine disaster. Combining grey prediction with cusp catastrophe model and constructing grey-cusp catastrophe prediction model,the predictive analysis on eight indexes of Guangdong storm surge disaster losses from 2005-2014 provided by the State Oceanic Administration of People＇s Republic of China could be made. Sound predicted results are obtained by calculating the Catastrophe time difference and comparing the predicted result with the raw data of each index of 2005-2014,which plays a guiding role in the prevention of marine disaster. Finally,the policy suggestions are given from the following four aspects like early warning and forecasting,disaster prevention and resilience,emergency rescue and disaster recovery.

关 键 词：海洋灾害损失 灰色-尖点突变 预测 

分 类 号：C939[经济管理—管理学]