基于非迭代海-气通量算法的蒸发波导预测模型研究  

Study on the evaporation duct forecasting model based on non-iterative sea-air flux algorithm

作　　者：刘立行 李煜斌 高志球 毕雪岩[5] 陈勤飞[6] 

机构地区：[1]南京信息工程大学应用气象学院 [2]中国人民解放军61828部队 [3]南京信息工程大学地理与遥感学院 [4]中国科学院大气物理研究所大气边界层物理和大气化学国家重点实验室 [5]中国气象局广州热带海洋气象研究所/区域数值天气预报重点实验室 [6]国家海洋技术中心漳州基地筹建办公室

出　　处：《应用海洋学学报》2017年第4期474-486,共13页Journal of Applied Oceanography

基　　金：国家自然科学基金资助项目(41505004;41675009);国家重点研发计划资助项目(2016YFA0602101)

摘　　要：蒸发波导易发生在海洋等水体之上.为了深入研究蒸发波导预测模型的诊断预报技术,本研究依据目前最新的非迭代海-气通量算法,建立了非迭代通量算法蒸发波导预测模型-NEW模型,进而对新模型进行了敏感性试验,且用我国近海试验数据进行了检验.最后将NEW模型与目前使用广泛、效果较好的4种蒸发波导模型(即P-J模型、Babin模型、NPS模型和伪折射率模型)进行了对比分析,得到了不同模型蒸发波导高度随气象海洋要素变化的规律,结果表明非迭代通量算法模型与传统模型对不同海洋气象要素的敏感性响应是一致的.不稳定层结条件下NEW模型对蒸发波导的诊断结果接近于Babin模型和NPS模型,而稳定条件下略高于NPS模型.试验表明NEW模型可以有效地诊断预报蒸发波导.本研究系统阐述了非迭代通量算法模型的建立和适用情况,为蒸发波导预测诊断算法的更新和模型发展提出了新的思路.Evaporation duct is a kind of atmospheric duct that occurs easily on water bodies such as the ocean. In order to improve the prediction accuracy of the evaporation duct model,a non-iterative flux algorithm evaporation duct prediction model( NEW model) is established. In this paper,the sensitivity test of the NEW model based on the observational data from China Sea is carried out,and the results are compared with the four widely used evaporation duct models( PJ model,Babin model,NPS model and pseudo-refractive model). The relationship between the evaporation duct height and the meteorological ocean elements has been analyzed,and the difference and similarities between the non-iterative flux model and the traditional models are discussed. It is found that,for the sensitivity test of different marine meteorological factors,the non-iterative flux model is consistent with the traditional model. The evaporation duct heights from the NEW model are close to those from the Babin model and the NPS model under unstable conditions,while are slightly higher than those from the NPS model under stable condition.Therefore,the NEW model can effectively predict the evaporation duct. In this paper,the establishment and application of the non-iterative flux algorithm model are presented,and the NEW model provides a new idea for the update and model development of the evaporation duct predictive diagnosis algorithm.

关 键 词：海洋物理学 蒸发波导 蒸发波导预测模型 非迭代海-气通量算法 敏感性 

分 类 号：P733[天文地球—物理海洋学]